Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2012
Gale Warning 323, NWS Juneau, AK
NWS Juneau, AK issued this gale warning at Oct 12, 2012, 8:42 PM AKDT. It was in force for 7 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 12, 2012, 8:42 PM AKDT (04:42 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 13, 2012, 4:00 AM AKDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Juneau, AK
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
259 FZAK51 PAJK 130443 AAA CWFAJK COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 842 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012 SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ098-132245- 842 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS... A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF TO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH AND REACH THE NORTH GULF COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT SENDS GALE FORCE WINDS INTO THE EAST GULF. A COMPLEX LOW WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND EAST GULF SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. $$ PKZ011-132245- GLACIER BAY- 842 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012 UPDATED .TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ012-132245- NORTHERN LYNN CANAL- 842 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. RAIN AND SNOW. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT MON NIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. .TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ013-132245- SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL- 842 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012 .TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ021-132245- ICY STRAIT- 842 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. RAIN. .SAT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ022-132245- CROSS SOUND- 842 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .SAT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. .MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. $$ PKZ031-132245- STEPHENS PASSAGE- 842 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 25 KT LATE. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ032-132245- NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 842 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012 .TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ033-132245- SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 842 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 15 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 14 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ034-132245- FREDERICK SOUND- 842 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SAT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ035-132245- SUMNER STRAIT- 842 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN LATE. .SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ036-132245- CLARENCE STRAIT- 842 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012 UPDATED ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN LATE. .SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. .MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$
1 follow-up statement
328 FZAK51 PAJK 131149 CWFAJK COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 13 2012 SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ098-140100- 400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 13 2012 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS... A 978 MB LOW S OF KODIAK WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE BY SAT EVENING. A DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW IN THE FAR S CENTRAL GULF ON SAT EVENING WILL MOVE NE INTO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SUN MORNING...THEN QUICKLY DRIFT NW TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUN NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE AK THROUGH SUN NIGHT. $$ PKZ011-140100- GLACIER BAY- 400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 13 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ012-140100- NORTHERN LYNN CANAL- 400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 13 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AND INCREASING TO 35 KT GALE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. .MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ013-140100- SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL- 400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 13 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ021-140100- ICY STRAIT- 400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 13 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ022-140100- CROSS SOUND- 400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 13 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. .SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. .MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. .WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. $$ PKZ031-140100- STEPHENS PASSAGE- 400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 13 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT LATE. OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN. .SUN...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ032-140100- NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 13 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SUN...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ033-140100- SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 13 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .SUN...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 14 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ034-140100- FREDERICK SOUND- 400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 13 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .SUN...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ035-140100- SUMNER STRAIT- 400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 13 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING E LATE IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN LATE. .SUN...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ036-140100- CLARENCE STRAIT- 400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 13 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN LATE. .SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT INCREASING TO STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. .MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Oct 12, 3:33 PM AKDT, 5 hours 9 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 12, 3:33 PM AKDT, 5 hours 9 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
333 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012
.SHORT TERM...SNOW LEVEL AT 300 - 500 FEET IN THE INNER CHANNELS
NE OF A LINE FROM JUNEAU TO GUSTAVUS. GFS SHOWS SNOW LEVEL THAT
IS A NICE FIT. TROUGH NE ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA TO SITKA WILL
MOVE N TO NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT.
TIMING OF FASTER TROUGH IS HARD TO GIVE A DETERMINISTIC POSITION
TO, BUT DATA HOLE OF SURFACE FEATURES LOWERS CONFIDENCE FOR THE
TRACK OF A FEATURE THIS IMPORTANT TO THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST
PACKAGE. BUT SMOOTHING THE LOCATION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
POSITION.
POST LANDFALL OF TROUGH WILL INCLUDE RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES, AND
FOR THE MARINE WILL INCLUDE BARRIER FLOW ON OUTER COAST.
.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE STARTS WITH A RATHER COMPLEX DEVELOPING
LOW MOVING NNE INTO THE GULF SAT NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING HANDLING THE DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A GOOD
CONSENSUS DEVELOPED WITH THE 12Z ECMWF...UKMET AND GEM MODELS ON
IT. THEY SUGGEST ONE LOW WILL PROBABLY MOVE INTO THE FAR SE GULF
LATE SAT NIGHT THEN CURVING ALONG THE OUTER COAST SUN. ANOTHER
LOW CENTER SHOULD TRACK TOWARD THE S-CENTRAL GULF LATE SAT NIGHT
THEN SWING AROUND THE S SIDE OF THE FIRST LOW TOWARD THE CENTRAL
COAST SUN...THEN INLAND SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE ANOTHER LOW MOVE OUT
OF THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE NE GULF MON...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LOW DIGGING SE INTO THE SW GULF THIS WEEKEND. USED THE 12Z ECMWF
FOR THE FORECAST PRESSURES AND WINDS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON
NIGHT.
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN TIME FRAME ARE THE
WINDS. THERE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE SOME HEADLINES MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER SAT NIGHT AND SUN...BUT WHAT
LEVEL OF HEADLINE REMAINS TRICKY AS THAT WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY
HOW STRONG THE TWO LOWS GET. AT THIS POINT THINK STRONG WIND
HEADLINES WILL SUFFICE. WILL HAVE GALES AND EVEN SOME STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT LATER SUN NIGHT WILL PROBABLY SEE A
PERIOD OF MORE SHOWERY WEATHER BUT ARRIVAL OF NEXT LOW MON SHOULD
MEAN MORE STEADY PRECIP AGAIN. FOR FORECAST SIMPLICITY...HAVE
KEPT PRECIP CHARACTER AS STRATIFORM SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.
DID NOT CHANGE ANYTHING BEYOND MON NIGHT DUE TO TIME CONSTRAINTS
AND WANTING TO FOCUS ON THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS. HPC USED A GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH TO THEIR GRIDS WHICH SOUNDS REASONABLE
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD LATER IN THE WEEK.
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031-033>036-041-042-
052-053.
&&
JBT/RWTThe office that day
Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 4:00 PM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 48 hr | |
| Oct 12, 4:00 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 5 days | |
| Oct 13, 4:00 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 4 days | |
| Oct 13, 4:00 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 42 hr | |
| Oct 13, 4:00 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 5 days | |
| Oct 13, 4:00 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 24 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.