Gale Warning 27, NWS Juneau, AK

524 
FZAK51 PAJK 021452 CCA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
550 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-030100-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE PANHANDLE WILL EXIT THE
AREA MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A STRONG OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL SPREAD GALES INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY. 

$$

PKZ011-030100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN...SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-030100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2012 

CORRECTED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW WITH RAIN. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-030100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-030100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-030100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. N
SWELL. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-030100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-030100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-030100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-030100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-030100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-030100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 2 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1037 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...LANDFALL OF COMPLEX LOW ON THE NORTH GULF COAST
WILL PERMIT AN OCFNT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EAST GULF COAST
ABOUT 12Z MON BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF EC AND GFS USING 1000 MB
VORTICITY FIELDS. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE SHWRS WILL BE WEAK
AND SHORT LIVED IN THE FOLLOWING ONSHORE TROUGH. THAT FOLLOWING
ONSHORE TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE ENTIRE GULF COAST FM PAYA TO POW
ISLAND ABOUT 12Z MON. TROUGH WILL BOTH MOVE INLAND PAST THE COAST
MTN RANGE ABOUT 15Z AS STABILIZATION BEGINS.

 A LARGE-SCALE STORM IS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
SECTION  BELOW. ALL THAT MATTERS THROUGH 00Z TUE FROM THIS SYSTEM
IS THE BROAD RIDGE IT DEVELOPS THAT WILL PROMPTLY SUPPRESS
SHOWERS TUE.     ABRUPT WARM UPS WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN AN
ISSUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE COOLER AIRMASS BEING OVER RUN FOR
OUR SNOW EVENT IS NOT TRUE ARCTIC AIR, BUT AN ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT
WAS PREVIOUSLY MODIFIED OVER THE GULF. ONE OF THE CONSEQUENCES IS
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS WEAKER AND EASIER TO BREAK DOWN, AND
THE LAPSE RATE CAN MIX MORE TO ADIABATIC WHICH GIVES AN
ADDITIONAL WARMING TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. SOME HIGH SITES DO HELP
INC TRMA2 AND THE TEMPS AT 1700 FT POINT TO A KEEPING THE WSW FOR
SNOW.

 VARIOUS PROBLEMS WITH EQUIPMENT AND AUTOMATION BUT MOST HAVE
OTHER PEOPLE FIXING THEM. SOME IMPORTANT DATA MISSING AND NOTED
BELOW, BUT WORKAROUNDS DO MITIGATE THE CONSEQUENCES.

 WE ARE IN THE MATURING PHASE OF WHAT HAS BEEN AN UNUSUAL COMPLEX
SYSTEM. WE ALWAYS KNOW THE ATMOSPHERE RESOLVES PERFECTLY,
INTEGRATES AND COMES UP WITH A UNIQUE SOLUTION, BUT THE MODELS
DID STRUGGLE WITH A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. NOW THE MODELS HAVE
SOME RESOLUTIONS. EC FIRST, GFS A GOOD SECOND, NAM INITIALIZATION
HAS LEAD TO IT NOT BEING USED MUCH THIS TIME.

 STRONG WAVE WITH 976 MB LOW WAS 300 NM SSW OF PACV AT 18Z. CLAIM
OF A SINGLE LOW CENTER IS PROBABLY AN OVERSIMPLIFICATION DUE TO
OUR IGNORANCE OF DETAILS OFFSHORE.  NOTE OF OUR BUOYS
46082 THROUGH 46085, ONLY 46083 IS STILL GIVING WINDS. 46205 AND
46184 ARE FINE HOWEVER, AND SOME RECONSTRUCTION CAN BE DONE WITH
ISALLOBARIC  FOOTPRINTS. LOW SHOULD DEEPEN WITH A COMPLEX LOW
WITH SVRL CNTRS OF 972 TO 975 MB ONSHORE FROM PACV TO ICY BAY
DURING 00Z- 06Z, WITH SHALLOWER LOWS ONSHORE INTO PWS AND INVOF
PAYA.

 THIS LANDFALL ON THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL THEN PERMIT THE
ASSOCD OCFNT TO MOVE E AND ONSHORE.

 AFTER FROPA OF THE OUTER COAST: THE COLD ADVECTION EXISTS FOR A
DEEP LAYER BUT IS WEAK. FOLLOWING RIDGE ALOFT AND SFC RAPIDLY
SUPPRESSES SHWRS, ALBEIT WEAK CONVECTION ZONE 17 THROUGH 00Z TUE.
ELSW ONSHORE FLOW OF STABLE AMS. 850MB RIDGE AT 00Z TUE EXTENDS
NW FM OVER PAKT-PAAP LINE AND IS BROAD ENOUGH THAT NO SGFNT
OUTFLOW DRYG CAN OCCUR THROUGH 00Z TUE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 2 AM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ027-028.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ018-019-
         029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-041>043.

&&

JBT