Gale Warning 24, NWS Juneau, AK

383 
FZAK52 PAJK 020438 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
737 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-022245-
737 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE NORTH AND
ONSHORE SUN NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE
ALASKA SUN NIGHT.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA TUE EVENING. 

$$

PKZ041-022245-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
737 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-022245-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
737 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING 30 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-022245-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
737 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING 30 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-022245-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
737 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-022245-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
737 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT BECOMING 35 KT LATE. SEAS 24 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 



$$

013 
FZAK52 PAJK 020712 AAB
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1012 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-030115-
1012 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE NORTH AND
ONSHORE SUN NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE
ALASKA SUN NIGHT.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA TUE EVENING. 

$$

PKZ041-030115-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1012 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-030115-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1012 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-030115-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1012 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-030115-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1012 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-030115-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1012 PM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
551 AM AKST SUN JAN 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS EVENING. OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE ACROSS SE AK TONIGHT. USED THE 00Z ECMWF
AS IT HAD BETTER FIT TO SATELLITE AND OBS DATA AT 06Z. MAIN
CHANGE WAS TO SPEED UP THE MOVEMENT OF THE MAIN LOW AND FRONT.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TIMING THE SNOW TO RAIN OR MIXED
PRECIP TRANSITION AND SNOW AMOUNTS BEFORE THAT OCCURS. WITH FRONT
MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THE PRECIP WILL TEND
TO DIMINISH SOONER. ALSO...THE FASTER MOVEMENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
A FASTER WARM UP AND PRECIP CHANGEOVER. STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY
HEAVY SNOWFALL N OF FREDERICK SOUND BEFORE ANY RAIN MIXES IN...SO
KEPT THE WS WARNING FOR THE INNER CHANNELS N OF FREDERICK SOUND
GOING...BUT ENDED THEM SOONER DUE TO FASTER PRECIP CHANGEOVER AND
ENDING OF HEAVIER PRECIP. ISSUED WS WARNINGS FOR ZONES
17...18...AND 29 NEAR HYDER AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL BEGIN
TO MIX IN THE PAJN-PAGS CORRIDOR BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN LATE
EVENING IN PAGY/PAHN ONCE FRONT MOVES THRU. UPDATED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS BASED ON GFS/ECMWF QPF BLEND AND SNOW TOOL. HEAVIEST SNOW
NEAR SEA LEVEL WILL BE AROUND PAHN...WHERE UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. WHITE PASS WILL SEE AROUND 2 FEET OF SNOW AND WILL HAVE
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...MAKING TRAVEL UP THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY DANGEROUS. ENDED UP REDUCING THE WS WARNING TO A WW ADVY
FOR ZONE 26 AS THEY WILL BE CHANGING TO RAIN FASTER TODAY. ALL IN
ALL A TREACHEROUS TRAVEL DAY FOR NEW YEARS DAY.

OTHERWISE...ENDED UP EXTENDING THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR ZONES
23..27 AND 28 TO 06Z THIS EVENING...CLOSER TO TIME OF OCCLUDED
FRONT PASSAGE. LEFT OUT ANY STRONG WIND HEADLINES ELSEWHERE DUE TO
THE WINTER HEADLINES...BUT AS THOSE ARE EXPIRED OR POSSIBLY
CANCELLED SOME STRONG WIND HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE HIGH WIND AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA MONDAY
MORNING MOVES EAST AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS BY MON AFTERNOON.
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
OFF TO THE NE EARLY TUESDAY. NEXT DEEP 970 MB STORM FORCE LOW
MOVES NORTH ALONG 140W TUE/TUE NIGHT. A SECOND STRONG LOW LIFTS NE
OUT OF THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND CROSSES NORTHERN SE ALASKA WED NIGHT.
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE N-S THROUGH INNER CHANNELS MONDAY MORNING
WITH CORE OF WARMTH OVER THE AREA. HAVE ALMOST ALL AREAS STARTING OF
AS RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN SNOW MON MORNING. BY THIS TIME WINDS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL HAVE SUBSIDED AND SHIFT TO THE WEST BY
MON AFTERNOON. KEPT CROSS SOUND AS A MAX SMCR WITH WEST WINDS. CAA
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
TURNING PRECIP TYPE BACK TO SNOW...HOWEVER EXPECT PRECIP WILL
TAPPER OFF QUICKLY AND PROBABLY END MON NIGHT WITH MINOR RIDGING.

NEXT SYSTEM LIFTS STEADILY NORTHWARD TUESDAY WITH RAIN AND WIND
RETURNING TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING AND NORTHERN BY TUE
AFTERNOON.

SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE TO STORM FORCE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
COASTAL ON TUE WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR PUBLIC ZONES. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL HAVE A NE COMPONENT TO
THE WIND. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT BUT KEPT NLY GALE FOR LYNN CANAL
WHICH GOES BACK TO SLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A 150+ KT SW JET
THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE AND LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIP. IN THE FAR NORTH THIS WILL BE MAINLY SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS. CENTRAL WILL START AS SNOW BUT GO TO RAIN BY EVENING. WILL
HAVE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMS HERE BUT COULD GO HIGHER OR
LOWER DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF WARMER AIR MASS. SOUTH AND
COASTAL WILL  BE MAINLY RAIN.

WED APPEARS TO BE A MILD DAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
NEXT LOW CUTS ACROSS PANHANDLE AND UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH WED
NIGHT WILL GO BACK TO CAA IN NW FLOW. EVENTUALLY WILL SEE A NE
GRADIENT DEVELOP WITH COLDER CONDITIONS INTO INTERIOR PASSES.

THE GFS WAS SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH ITSELF WITH TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND ONLY HAD LIMITED USE. NAM SEEMED TO HANDLE TIMING AND
TEPMS WELL. STUCK WITH EC FOR PRES BUT STILL HAD TO BEEF UP WINDS.
WENT WITH HPC DAY 5-8 FOR TRENDS IN LATER PERIODS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ022-026.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM AKST THIS
     EVENING FOR AKZ023-027-028.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ024.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ020-021-
     025.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT AKST
     TONIGHT FOR AKZ017-029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-031-033>036-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-032.

&&

RWT/MM