Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2012
Gale Warning 239, NWS Juneau, AK
NWS Juneau, AK issued this gale warning at May 12, 2012, 4:00 AM AKDT. It was in force for 12 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- May 12, 2012, 4:00 AM AKDT (12:00 UTC)
- Expired
- May 12, 2012, 4:00 PM AKDT
- In force
- 12 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Juneau, AK
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
630 FZAK51 PAJK 121146 CWFAJK COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ098-130100- 400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS... A 998 MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DRIFT N OVER AK INTERIOR THROUGH SAT EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SE AK THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK SAT NIGHT WILL PUSH ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT TO THE NE GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ PKZ011-130100- GLACIER BAY- 400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING... .TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ012-130100- NORTHERN LYNN CANAL- 400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 ...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING... .TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ013-130100- SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL- 400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 ...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING... .TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ021-130100- ICY STRAIT- 400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 ...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING... .TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ022-130100- CROSS SOUND- 400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 ...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING... .TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL IN THE EVENING. .SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ031-130100- STEPHENS PASSAGE- 400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 ...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING... .TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ032-130100- NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 ...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING... .TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ033-130100- SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 ...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING... .TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ034-130100- FREDERICK SOUND- 400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 ...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING... .TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ035-130100- SUMNER STRAIT- 400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 ...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING... .TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. .TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SUN...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$ PKZ036-130100- CLARENCE STRAIT- 400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 ...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING... .TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. $$
1 follow-up statement
374 FZAK51 PAJK 122348 CWFAJK COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ098-131400- 400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS... A WEATHER FRONT ALONG THE OUTER COAST WILL WEAKEN WHILE MOVING INLAND SAT NIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK SAT NIGHT WILL PUSH ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT TO THE NE GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. $$ PKZ011-131400- GLACIER BAY- 400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 .TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. $$ PKZ012-131400- NORTHERN LYNN CANAL- 400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN. .SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. $$ PKZ013-131400- SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL- 400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 .TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. $$ PKZ021-131400- ICY STRAIT- 400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 .TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING... THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. $$ PKZ022-131400- CROSS SOUND- 400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 .TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING... THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. .TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. .WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. $$ PKZ031-131400- STEPHENS PASSAGE- 400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. .TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. $$ PKZ032-131400- NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 .TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. .SUN...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. $$ PKZ033-131400- SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT- 400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 .TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 5 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ034-131400- FREDERICK SOUND- 400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING LATE. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. .SUN...SE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. .SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. .MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. $$ PKZ035-131400- SUMNER STRAIT- 400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. .SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. .MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. .WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$ PKZ036-131400- CLARENCE STRAIT- 400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012 .TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. .SUN...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 4 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. .SUN NIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. .MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. .THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at May 11, 3:41 PM AKDT, 12 hours 19 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 11, 3:41 PM AKDT, 12 hours 19 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
341 PM AKDT FRI MAY 11 2012
.SHORT TERM...A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE THIS
FRONT ARE THE STRONG WINDS ALONG IT. A WAVE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG
IT LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS OF AROUND 60KT AT 850MB. THIS WILL
KEEP THE GALES GOING FOR THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND AS THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND WINDS THROUGH INSIDE WATERS WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE WITH WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 45MPH OVER LAND. STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE YAKUTAT AND OUTER COASTAL AREAS WILL BE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE INNER PANHANDLE AREAS INCLUDING
JUNEAU. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE WIND SHEAR FOR AIRCRAFT
CONCERNS.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TO ACCOMPANY THE STRONG WINDS...AGAIN WITH THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREAS SEEING THE MOST. EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER THE FAR
SERN ZONES THAT HAS SEEN THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN TODAY. AS THE
WAVE LIFTS NORTH THIS WILL BACK PRECIP OFF EVEN MORE FROM THAT
REGION...THEN THE RAIN WILL MOVE BACK IN OVER THE PANHANDLE AS IT
PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MORE QPF THAN SEEN TODAY.
NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE.
THE HIRES MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE WIND SPEED THE
BEST AND WERE USED TO ADJUST UP FROM BASE MODEL WINDS THEN
ADJUSTED UP FURTHER FOR PRONE AREAS.
.LONG TERM...PATTERN CHG FM RAIN TO DRIER IS STILL TO OCCUR THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ARE LIMITED, AND ARE
PRINCIPALLY DUE TO A WEAKER SOLUTION FOR THE LOW TRACKING E THROUGH
THE EASTERN GULF TUE. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
SOME NOTES ABOUT THE TRANSITION FROM THE SHORT-RANGE DESK: GFS
HAS SLOWER TIMING FOR THE APCH OF THE SFC TROUGH SAT, WITH UKMET/EC/NAM
IN A USEFUL CONSENSUS FOR LANDFALL ABOUT 00Z SUN. THE NAM AS PRINCIPAL
WITH NAM/GFS/EC FOR MON AND TRANSITION TO EC ABT 00Z TUE. 03Z WED
ONWARD USED EXISTING GRIDS WHICH FITS THE NEW HPC.
RAPID TRACK OF 500H LOW, FM OVER BRISTOL BAY SUN 00Z TO OVR ERN
GLFALSK 12Z TUE, WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRNG DRYING SEQUENCE THRFTR
AS THE LOW DISSIPATES ONSHORE ABT 100 NM NW PASI. THE DISSIPATION
OF THE LOW IS AIDED BY INTSFYG RIDGE ALF THAT BY 12Z WED WILL XTD
FM THE NPAC TO NNW OVR A PAWD TO PABR LN. THIS RIDGE ALF WILL BE A
MUCH SLOWER FEATURE TO MOVE E AS A POORLY-ORGANIZED BLOCKING PATN
BECOMES MORE IMPORTANT.
MORE ON THAT 500H LOW: IT IS OVR PAGM/PASA ATTM HAS AN ASSOCD
TROF XTDG SE OVR PAKN AND TO THE SSE. A STRONG VORT CNTR ASSOCD
WITH THIS LOW ALF WILL RAPIDLY TRACK SE ALONG THE TROF ALF AS
THE TROF MOVS E. THE LOW ALF SHOULD BE OVR BRISTOL BAY ABT 00Z,
AND ABT 100 NM S OF PAMD AT 12Z MON. 12Z TUE THE LOW SHOULD BE
OVR PAYA, BASED ON THE ECMWF. THE GFS HAS A FASTER TIMING FOR
THE LOW ALF, BUT THE EC SLOWER TIMING IS EASIER TO ACCEPT AS IT
HAS VARIED LESS FROM RUN TO RUN, AND THAT THE EC HAS THE UPPER
LEVEL VORT FEATURES BETTER COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER LOW SOLNS.
AS THE 500H LOW MOVES OVER THE GLFALSK, THE FLOW ALOFT TO THE SW
OF THE LOW WILL WILL PROVIDE LEESIDE TROUGHING IN GULF AND ALSO
SUPPORT BE ASSOCD WITH A WEAK SFC LOW REACHING WITHIN 120 NM SE OF
PAYA ABT 12Z TUE.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE. NEED TO POINT OUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR DETAILS
OF OF WEAK LOW WI 100 NM OF CROSS SOUND ABOUT 18Z TUE. THERE ARE A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS THAT THE MODELS HAVE GIVEN, I.E. A STATISTICAL
SHOTGUN PATTERN FOR THIS SMALL FEATURE. THE BEST GUESTIMATE IS FOR
THE WIND SHIFTS NEAR CROSS SOUND TO FOLLOW A TRANSITION FROM SW TO
NE AND BACK TO SW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS BEGINNING LATE MON, BUT GETTING
CLOSER TO THE EVENT SHOULD HELP CLARIFY THE TIMING.
SOME NOTES ABOUT THE TRANSITION FROM THE SHORT-RANGE DESK: GFS
HAS SLOWER TIMING FOR THE APCH OF THE SFC TROUGH SAT, WITH UKMET/EC/NAM
IN A USEFUL CONSENSUS FOR LANDFALL ABOUT 00Z SUN. THE NAM AS PRINCIPAL
WITH NAM/GFS/EC FOR MON AND TRANSITION TO EC ABT 00Z TUE. 03Z WED ONWARD
USED EXISTING GRIDS WHICH FITS THE NEW HPC.
SLOWER MODEL TRACK SOLUTIONS FOR LOW MOVG E ACRS THE GULF ENCOURAGED
THE USE OF THE EC OVER THE GFS, AS THE LATER SEEMS TO NOT BE ACTING
ENOUGH ON LEESIDE EFFECTS.
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
AKZ027.
STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR AKZ022-023-025.
STRONG WIND SATURDAY MORNING FOR AKZ018-019.
STRONG WIND FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
AKZ018.
STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-041>043-051>053.
&&
HANNON/JBTThe office that day
Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 4:00 PM AKDT | Gale Warning | AJK | 12 hr | |
| May 12, 4:00 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 48 hr | |
| May 12, 4:00 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 12 hr | |
| May 12, 11:26 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 5 days | |
| May 12, 3:45 PM AKDT | Frost Advisory | AJK | 6 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.