Frost Advisory 1, NWS Juneau, AK

146 
WWAK77 PAJK 130604
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1004 PM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012

AKZ017-130715-
/X.CAN.PAJK.FR.Y.0001.120513T0900Z-120513T1500Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
1004 PM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012

...FROST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE FROST
ADVISORY. 

FROST IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN
SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
543 AM AKDT SAT MAY 12 2012

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOP REVEALS A 998 MB LOW IN
THE NORTHEAST GULF...JUST OFF THE YAKUTAT BAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. A SHARPENED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST INTO CANADA.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE BETWEEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE RIDGE AXIS
IS HEADING TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA...ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WIND. GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH RAIN FELL
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. 50 TO 60 KNOTS BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA EARLY
THIS MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF DRIFTS NORTHWARD INTO ALASKAN INTERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NAM WAS
INITIALIZED BEST AND THE GFS GAVE A FAIRLY GOOD SUPPORT FOR THE
LOW TRACK INTO THE ALASKAN INTERIOR...AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE WESTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE WITH THE GFS AND NAM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE DEVELOPING
LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF...NEAR KODIAK ISLAND...TONIGHT WILL PUSH
ANOTHER FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES DRIFTING
NORTH...THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...RAIN WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR KODIAK TONIGHT WILL
PUSH ANOTHER FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THIS FRONT WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND SOME SNOW MAY MIX OVER THE
YAKUTAT AREA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE THAT DROPPED SOUTH AND
THEN CURVED INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF NEAR KODIAK ISLAND THEN WILL
BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GULF THAT WILL BE MOVING INLAND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AREA MONDAY EVENING. JET STREAM SPLITS WITH
A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE BERING SEAS AND CHASING THE LOW/TROUGH
ACROSS THE STATE AND NORTHERN GULF.

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE MID PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO GET SQUEEZED OUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS TRYING
TO SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY BE ON THE SUNNY SIDE. I
HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT SEA STRATUS LAYER OUT OF THE GULF MAY BE
PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE. I DID INCREASE
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST FOR THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
TIME FRAME DUE TO THIS CONCERN TO THE MOSTLY CLOUDY LEVELS.

AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF A BAND OF 30 KT WINDS
ARE WITH THE LOW. HOWEVER ONCE THAT LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND
THE WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER 20 KT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. INITIAL
PRECIPITATION BAND WITH THE LOW WILL BE SPREADING RAIN INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THAT SHOULD BE TRANSITIONING TO
MORE OF A SHOWER PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE
GENERALLY TAPERING OFF BY TUESDAY NIGHT TO A DRIER PATTERN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ022-023.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-041>043-051>053.

&&

AHN/BEZENEK