Gale Warning 186, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Mar 9, 2012, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Mar 9, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

345 
FZAK51 PAJK 091244
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-100100-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 983 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO SUNDAY.  

$$

PKZ011-100100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN...THEN SNOW LATE. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-100100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING N AND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-100100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-100100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W OF GLACIER BAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. E OF GLACIER BAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-100100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-100100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING...
THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT SE NORTHERN HALF...DIMINISHING TO
20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-100100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING...
THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-100100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT
10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-100100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING...
THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES...GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-100100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT SW 40 KT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCE
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-100100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Mar 8, 3:23 PM AKST, 12 hours 37 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
323 PM AKST THU MAR 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS OF
THIS AFTERNOON IS ALREADY GENERATING HIGH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
OUTER COAST. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR
ZONE 27. STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR ZONES 23, 26, AND 28. ALSO
HAVE A STORM WARNING OUT FOR CLARENCE STRAIT THIS EVENING BASED
ON SHIP OBSERVATIONS EARLIER IN THE DAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
TRACK TO THE NORTH AND THE FRONT COMES ASHORE, A STRONG SOUTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP AND VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
PROPAGATE TO THE NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. HAVE STRONG
WIND HEADLINES FOR TOMORROW FOR BOTH JUNEAU AND SKAGWAY AS WELL
AS A GALE WARNING FOR CHATHAM STRAIT AND LYNN CANAL.

 SNOW HAS FALLEN THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY IN YAKUTAT, HAINES, AND
SKAGWAY. VISIBILITY AND CEILING IN YAKUTAT AND HAINES VERY LOW
IMC AND THOSE AIRPORTS HAVE BEEN CLOSED ALL DAY. HAVE OPTED TO
EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR SKAGWAY AT 4 PM, SINCE
PRECIP RATES THERE ARE NOT TOO GREAT. THE CONCERN IS HAINES AND
YAKUTAT. SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL STEADILY IN BOTH LOCATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SOLIDLY BELOW FREEZING. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND
THE WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS FOR THESE TWO ZONES INTO THIS EVENING
IF THE SITUATION DOES NOT CHANGE SOON.

 TEMPERATURES WERE TRICKY TODAY, ONCE WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ARRIVES IN YAKUTAT, THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN
WILL BE RATHER ABRUPT. IN HAINES, A MORE GRADUAL TRANSITION IS
EXPECTED, INVOLVING MIXED PRECIP. IN THESE PLACES AS WELL AS THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE, THE NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND WILL
BE REVERSED, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS OCCURRING EARLY IN THE EVENING
AND TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY
TOMORROW IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
OCCUR EARLY, AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY FALLING
TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY.

 A LOW THAT ENTERS THE EASTERN GULF TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL KEEP
WIND AND A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OR PRECIPITATION IN THE PICTURE INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.

 USED GFS AND NAM FOR UPDATES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AVERAGE OWING TO THE ONGOING SNOW AND NON-
STANDARD TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS DEPICT A GENERAL IDEA FOR A SMALL
SIZE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE PATTERN DOMINATING THE ALASKAN GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BLOCKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CANADA. WITHIN THE LONG WAVE...A MEAN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE ARCTIC INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THEN DRIFTING TO
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WITH QUITE COLD AIR ALOFT. A COUPLE OF SURFACE
LOWS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOWS...WILL DEVELOP AND ROTATE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION. THE GFS
HAS BEEN MOSTLY PERSISTENT AND WAS USED TO REFRESH THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

 A LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND A FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN TWO THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE WITH RAIN AND
SNOW. EXPECT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...EXCEPT 2 TO 6
INCHES NEAR HYDER...AND SOUTHEAST GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BECOME BROAD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST SOUTHEAST OF
THE LOW TRACK WHILE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW WILL HAVE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOWS WITH LOWER POPS.

 THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE GRADUALLY BROKEN AS THE
BLOCKING HIGH OVER CANADA WEAKENS AND THE SMALL SIZE LONG WAVE
SLIGHTLY SHIFTS TO THE WEST BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...IN WHICH TIME
MODELS START HANDLING THE BREAKING PATTERN SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY.
LEANED OVER THE HPC APPROACH FOR THE REMAINING PERIODS OF THE LONG
TERM DUE TO GROWING UNCERTAINTY. THE HPC OUTPUTS WERE HEAVILY
BASED ON THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEANS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME INCREASING INFLUENCES OF NCEP MODELS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEANS BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DIMINISHING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES MERGE. GENERALLY SPEAKING...A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL TRACK NORTH AND ENTER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST GULF LATE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TRACK NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ023-026.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FRIDAY MORNING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ028.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ017>019.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-031>033-035-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-034-053.

&&

FRITSCH/AHN

In the hours before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1022 PM AKST THU MAR 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     HEAVY SNOW       40 NW HAINES            59.65N 136.25W
03/08/2012  M8.0 INCH        XXX                XX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HAINES CUSTOMS

0200 PM     HEAVY SNOW       YAKUTAT                 59.54N 139.73W
03/08/2012  M7.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WSO YAKUTAT AFTERNOON CLIMATE REPORT

0547 PM     HEAVY SNOW       HAINES                  59.24N 135.44W
03/08/2012  M20.9 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HAINES2 CO-OP 12.1 IN. SNOW AT 0840, ADDITIONAL 8.8 IN.
            AT 1700.

0621 PM     HEAVY SNOW       35 S HAINES             58.73N 135.44W
03/08/2012  M25.0 INCH                          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MUD BAY SPOTTER 19-10

0804 PM     HEAVY SNOW       SKAGWAY                 59.48N 135.33W
03/08/2012  M12.1 INCH                          AK   COCORAHS

            DYEA RD COCORAHS. 6.6 IN AT 6AM, ADDITIONAL 5.5 INCHES AT
            8 PM

&&

PRB

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2012Every gale warning in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.