Gale Warning 170, NWS Juneau, AK

264 
FZAK67 PAJK 091242
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-100100-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 983 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO SUNDAY.  

$$

PKZ310-100100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 9 2012 

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. W SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. W
SWELL SHIFTING TO THE S LATE. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
323 PM AKST THU MAR 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS OF
THIS AFTERNOON IS ALREADY GENERATING HIGH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
OUTER COAST. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR
ZONE 27. STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR ZONES 23, 26, AND 28. ALSO
HAVE A STORM WARNING OUT FOR CLARENCE STRAIT THIS EVENING BASED
ON SHIP OBSERVATIONS EARLIER IN THE DAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
TRACK TO THE NORTH AND THE FRONT COMES ASHORE, A STRONG SOUTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP AND VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
PROPAGATE TO THE NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. HAVE STRONG
WIND HEADLINES FOR TOMORROW FOR BOTH JUNEAU AND SKAGWAY AS WELL
AS A GALE WARNING FOR CHATHAM STRAIT AND LYNN CANAL.

 SNOW HAS FALLEN THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY IN YAKUTAT, HAINES, AND
SKAGWAY. VISIBILITY AND CEILING IN YAKUTAT AND HAINES VERY LOW
IMC AND THOSE AIRPORTS HAVE BEEN CLOSED ALL DAY. HAVE OPTED TO
EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR SKAGWAY AT 4 PM, SINCE
PRECIP RATES THERE ARE NOT TOO GREAT. THE CONCERN IS HAINES AND
YAKUTAT. SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL STEADILY IN BOTH LOCATIONS AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SOLIDLY BELOW FREEZING. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND
THE WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS FOR THESE TWO ZONES INTO THIS EVENING
IF THE SITUATION DOES NOT CHANGE SOON.

 TEMPERATURES WERE TRICKY TODAY, ONCE WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ARRIVES IN YAKUTAT, THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN
WILL BE RATHER ABRUPT. IN HAINES, A MORE GRADUAL TRANSITION IS
EXPECTED, INVOLVING MIXED PRECIP. IN THESE PLACES AS WELL AS THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE, THE NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND WILL
BE REVERSED, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS OCCURRING EARLY IN THE EVENING
AND TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY
TOMORROW IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
OCCUR EARLY, AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY FALLING
TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY.

 A LOW THAT ENTERS THE EASTERN GULF TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL KEEP
WIND AND A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OR PRECIPITATION IN THE PICTURE INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.

 USED GFS AND NAM FOR UPDATES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AVERAGE OWING TO THE ONGOING SNOW AND NON-
STANDARD TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS DEPICT A GENERAL IDEA FOR A SMALL
SIZE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE PATTERN DOMINATING THE ALASKAN GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BLOCKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CANADA. WITHIN THE LONG WAVE...A MEAN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE ARCTIC INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THEN DRIFTING TO
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WITH QUITE COLD AIR ALOFT. A COUPLE OF SURFACE
LOWS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOWS...WILL DEVELOP AND ROTATE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A BIT LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION. THE GFS
HAS BEEN MOSTLY PERSISTENT AND WAS USED TO REFRESH THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

 A LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND A FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN TWO THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE WITH RAIN AND
SNOW. EXPECT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...EXCEPT 2 TO 6
INCHES NEAR HYDER...AND SOUTHEAST GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BECOME BROAD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST SOUTHEAST OF
THE LOW TRACK WHILE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW WILL HAVE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOWS WITH LOWER POPS.

 THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE GRADUALLY BROKEN AS THE
BLOCKING HIGH OVER CANADA WEAKENS AND THE SMALL SIZE LONG WAVE
SLIGHTLY SHIFTS TO THE WEST BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...IN WHICH TIME
MODELS START HANDLING THE BREAKING PATTERN SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY.
LEANED OVER THE HPC APPROACH FOR THE REMAINING PERIODS OF THE LONG
TERM DUE TO GROWING UNCERTAINTY. THE HPC OUTPUTS WERE HEAVILY
BASED ON THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEANS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME INCREASING INFLUENCES OF NCEP MODELS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEANS BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DIMINISHING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES MERGE. GENERALLY SPEAKING...A
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL TRACK NORTH AND ENTER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST GULF LATE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TRACK NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ023-026.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FRIDAY MORNING FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ028.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ017>019.
         STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-031>033-035-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-034-053.

&&

FRITSCH/AHN