Gale Warning 137, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Feb 9, 2012, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Feb 9, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

720 
FZAK51 PAJK 091251
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-100100-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW MOVING INTO THE SE GULF THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT TO THE NORTHERN GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND
SE AK THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. 

$$

PKZ011-100100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-100100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-100100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-100100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS
OVER WESTERN AREA. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-100100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-100100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE LATE. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-100100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-100100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT...
EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-100100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-100100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT...
EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-100100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012 

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 10
FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT
LATE. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Feb 8, 2:00 PM AKST, 14 hours earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
2 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A 964 MB LOW
IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF TRACKING TOWARD THE AK PENINSULA. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHWARD MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN AK GULF AND AK PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS FAIRLY
WEAK SO EXPECT RESULTING PRECIPITATION TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
PERIODIC THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. AS
THERE IS SOME COLDER AIR MOVING UP WITH THE FRONT SOME REGIONS MAY
SEE TEMPERATURES DROP JUST ENOUGH TO SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN. HOWEVER AS PRECIP WILL BE ENDING BY THE TIME TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO DROP EXPECT LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. COASTAL WATER
WINDS WILL BE AT GALE FORCE THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHERN GULF THEN
DIMINISH AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE
HAVE BEEN GENERALLY EASTERLY WITH SOME HIGHER OUTFLOW GUSTS DUE TO
THE EAST WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. SOME HIGHER GUSTS
MAY BE SEEN AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH, THEN WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. THE PROBLEM AREAS HAS BEEN SKAGWAY WITH WINDS REMAINING
A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TODAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT WEAKENS.

THINGS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS A 982 MB MAX
GALE FORCE LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHENS TO STORM FORCE THURSDAY
EVENING. WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WILL PICK UP TO
GALE FORCE THROUGH THE DAY WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. PRECIP WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH THEN TRACK OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
MOVING IN EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN.

FOR TONIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WERE FAIRLY MINOR. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP END TIME OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE BUT OVER ALL THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM
INHERITED GRIDS. MODELS WERE STILL SHOWING SOME FAIR DIFFERENCES
WITHE THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
12Z GFS WAS STILL THE STRONGEST WITH 977 MB CENTER WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF WAS AT 990 MB. LATER RUNS THE MODEL HAVE FALLEN MORE IN LINE
CLOSER TO A 980 MB LOW, WHICH IS A BIT DEEPER THAN THE 12Z DATA
AVAILABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. USED THE 12Z NAM THEN 12Z EC
TO UPDATE GRIDS. CHANGES FOR TONIGHT WERE MINOR BUT DID BUMP UP
WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
DIFFICULT DIFFICULT DECISION TODAY AS TO DEVELOPING LOW CENTER WILL
BE OFF DIXON ENTRANCE THU AFTERNOON-EVENING. THE EVIL CHOICE IS THE
INTENSITY OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. 08/12Z AK-GFS IS THE DEEPEST
SOLUTION WITH 976 MB 200 NM WSW OF BUOY 46205 WHICH WOULD PRODUCE
STORM FORCE WIND FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTSIDE MARINE ZONES AND STRONG
WIND FOR PRINCE OF WALES AND BARANOF ISLAND INTO THU NITE. 09Z SREF
AND 08/12Z UKMET ARE MORE OF A COMPROMISE BUT NOT USED. 08/12Z NAM
IS WEAKEST BUT IS SHOWING GALE FORCE BUT CAME IN WITH STORM FORCE
ON 18Z RUN. TRIED TO PICK USING 300-500 MB RH VERSUS SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR TECHNIQUES BUT OPS MODELS ALL WERE INITIALIZED WELL.

ULTIMATELY USED THE 08/12Z HI-RES ECMWF AS BASIS. 08/18Z AK-GFS WAS
CONSISTENT WITH 12Z GFS RUN FOR STORM FORCE BUT AFTER LOOKING AT
THE 850 MB WIND IN THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ECMWF DECIDED TO INDICATE
STORM FORCE THU EVENING FOR OUTER WATERS NEAR THE END OF THE SHIFT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT STILL HAS GOOD FETCH OF MOISTURE IN MEDIUM
RANGE UNTIL A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SUN
NIGHT AND MON. HPC PROGS USED AGAIN DAY 5 AND BEYOND WITH UPPER
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW PREDOMINANT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
ONLY MODERATE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW THU
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-035-036-041-042-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADV PKZ011-013-021-022-031-033-034-043.

&&

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2012Every gale warning in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.