Gale Warning 135, NWS Juneau, AK

576 
FZAK52 PAJK 090738 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1038 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-100145-
1038 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAK WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF
WILL MOVE N ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SE AK THROUGH WED NIGHT.
A STORM FORCE LOW MOVING INTO THE FAR SE GULF THU MORNING WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI MORNING.  

$$

PKZ041-100145-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1038 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE
TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-100145-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1038 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-100145-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1038 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY... 

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT BECOMING S LATE.
SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-100145-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1038 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO STORM FORCE WIND TO
50 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-100145-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1038 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. S SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.  
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

830 
FZAK52 PAJK 091257
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-100100-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW MOVING INTO THE SE GULF THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT TO THE NORTHERN GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND
SE AK THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. 

$$

PKZ041-100100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE IN THE MORNING THEN BUILDING TO 23 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 35 KT LATE. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN IN
THE EVENING.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-100100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT LATE IN THE MORNING THEN BUILDING TO 21 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 40 KT LATE. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL IN THE
MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-100100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT
OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 24 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-100100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING
TO 24 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT SUBSIDING TO 22 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-100100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 9 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 45 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING
TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN LATE.
.FRI...S GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING SE GALE TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
2 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A 964 MB LOW
IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF TRACKING TOWARD THE AK PENINSULA. THE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHWARD MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN AK GULF AND AK PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS FAIRLY
WEAK SO EXPECT RESULTING PRECIPITATION TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
PERIODIC THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. AS
THERE IS SOME COLDER AIR MOVING UP WITH THE FRONT SOME REGIONS MAY
SEE TEMPERATURES DROP JUST ENOUGH TO SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN. HOWEVER AS PRECIP WILL BE ENDING BY THE TIME TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO DROP EXPECT LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. COASTAL WATER
WINDS WILL BE AT GALE FORCE THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHERN GULF THEN
DIMINISH AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE
HAVE BEEN GENERALLY EASTERLY WITH SOME HIGHER OUTFLOW GUSTS DUE TO
THE EAST WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW TO THE WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. SOME HIGHER GUSTS
MAY BE SEEN AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH, THEN WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. THE PROBLEM AREAS HAS BEEN SKAGWAY WITH WINDS REMAINING
A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TODAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT WEAKENS.

THINGS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS A 982 MB MAX
GALE FORCE LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHENS TO STORM FORCE THURSDAY
EVENING. WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WILL PICK UP TO
GALE FORCE THROUGH THE DAY WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. PRECIP WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH THEN TRACK OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
MOVING IN EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL RAIN.

FOR TONIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WERE FAIRLY MINOR. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP END TIME OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE BUT OVER ALL THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE FROM
INHERITED GRIDS. MODELS WERE STILL SHOWING SOME FAIR DIFFERENCES
WITHE THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
12Z GFS WAS STILL THE STRONGEST WITH 977 MB CENTER WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF WAS AT 990 MB. LATER RUNS THE MODEL HAVE FALLEN MORE IN LINE
CLOSER TO A 980 MB LOW, WHICH IS A BIT DEEPER THAN THE 12Z DATA
AVAILABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. USED THE 12Z NAM THEN 12Z EC
TO UPDATE GRIDS. CHANGES FOR TONIGHT WERE MINOR BUT DID BUMP UP
WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
DIFFICULT DIFFICULT DECISION TODAY AS TO DEVELOPING LOW CENTER WILL
BE OFF DIXON ENTRANCE THU AFTERNOON-EVENING. THE EVIL CHOICE IS THE
INTENSITY OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. 08/12Z AK-GFS IS THE DEEPEST
SOLUTION WITH 976 MB 200 NM WSW OF BUOY 46205 WHICH WOULD PRODUCE
STORM FORCE WIND FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTSIDE MARINE ZONES AND STRONG
WIND FOR PRINCE OF WALES AND BARANOF ISLAND INTO THU NITE. 09Z SREF
AND 08/12Z UKMET ARE MORE OF A COMPROMISE BUT NOT USED. 08/12Z NAM
IS WEAKEST BUT IS SHOWING GALE FORCE BUT CAME IN WITH STORM FORCE
ON 18Z RUN. TRIED TO PICK USING 300-500 MB RH VERSUS SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR TECHNIQUES BUT OPS MODELS ALL WERE INITIALIZED WELL.

ULTIMATELY USED THE 08/12Z HI-RES ECMWF AS BASIS. 08/18Z AK-GFS WAS
CONSISTENT WITH 12Z GFS RUN FOR STORM FORCE BUT AFTER LOOKING AT
THE 850 MB WIND IN THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ECMWF DECIDED TO INDICATE
STORM FORCE THU EVENING FOR OUTER WATERS NEAR THE END OF THE SHIFT.

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT STILL HAS GOOD FETCH OF MOISTURE IN MEDIUM
RANGE UNTIL A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SUN
NIGHT AND MON. HPC PROGS USED AGAIN DAY 5 AND BEYOND WITH UPPER
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW PREDOMINANT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
ONLY MODERATE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW THU
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-035-036-041-042-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADV PKZ011-013-021-022-031-033-034-043.

&&