Gale Warning 134, NWS Juneau, AK

490 
FZAK52 PAJK 090032
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-091400-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAK WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF
WILL MOVE N ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SE AK THROUGH WED NIGHT.
A STORM FORCE LOW MOVING INTO THE FAR SE GULF THU MORNING WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI MORNING.  

$$

PKZ041-091400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2012 

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE
TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-091400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2012 

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-091400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY... 

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN IN THE
EVENING. 
.THU...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT BECOMING S LATE.
SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-091400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN IN THE
EVENING. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO STORM FORCE WIND TO
50 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-091400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. S SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.  
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

576 
FZAK52 PAJK 090738 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1038 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-100145-
1038 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAK WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF
WILL MOVE N ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SE AK THROUGH WED NIGHT.
A STORM FORCE LOW MOVING INTO THE FAR SE GULF THU MORNING WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI MORNING.  

$$

PKZ041-100145-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1038 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO GALE
TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-100145-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1038 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-100145-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1038 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY... 

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT BECOMING S LATE.
SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-100145-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1038 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO STORM FORCE WIND TO
50 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-100145-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1038 PM AKST WED FEB 8 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. S SWELL. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.  
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
620 AM AKST WED FEB 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 965 MB
LOW OVER THE SOUTH WESTERN GULF. A DISSIPATING FRONT STRETCHES
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER AND DRIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A NEWLY FORMED
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF WITH A TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPING FAR SOUTH OF HAIDA
GWAII. AHEAD AND ALONG THE NEWLY FORMED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CLOUDS
AND RAIN BANDS ARE CONSOLIDATING AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWEST INTO
THE EASTERN GULF. QUITE WARM AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE FORECAST DOMAIN THIS MORNING WITH SOME CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL SECTION REPORT THEIR MERCURY READING AROUND 50 DEGREES.

 MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. REFRESHED
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE ECMWF FOR ITS BEST
INITIALIZATION AND CONSISTENCY. PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE AREA
ACROSS THE WESTERN CANADA MAINTAINS OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOCAL
REGION THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. EXPECT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARRIVE SOUTHERN AREAS
BY MID MORNING...THEN SPREAD NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN EXCEPT NORTHERN MOST AREAS MAY SEE RAIN AND
SNOW MIX.

 BEHIND THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS THIS MORNING. THE NEWLY FORMED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL RAFT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

 &&

.LONG TERM. /THUR THROUGH TUE/... DRY HIGH PERSSURE RIDGE OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS BREAKING DOWN AND DRY SPELL FOR SE AK IS
WANING. A CONTINUOUS FEED OF SMALL SCALE CYCLONES WILL MOVE TOWARD
SE AK FROM THE SW AND EACH WILL CAUSE SOME PRECIP AND LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS AS THEY ROLL BY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AT SEA LEVEL BUT SOME SNOW OVER NORTHERN PANHANDLE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DESPITE THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING
DOMINATED BY MOIST SW FLOW DURING THE LONG TERM THE TOTAL AMOUNT
OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL LIKELY BE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT SE AK
EXPERIENCED DURING LATE JANUARY.

LARGE SCALE FORECAST MODELS FROM TUE NIGHT CONTINUE TO OFFER A
NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE DETAILS OF TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF LOWS COMING TOWARD SE AK. HENCE I FOLLOWED ENSEMBLE MEANS AND
BLENDED EURO CENTER MODEL WITH SREF AND GFS OUTPUT. THE ONLY
ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE LAST NIGHT WAS TO BLEND IN
THE SREF AND GFS INTO THE EXISTING FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHICH MERGED NICELY WITH HPC GUIDANCE STARTING NEXT WEEK. THE
RESULT WAS A TRACK OF LOW CENTERS A TAD FARTHER WEST OFF THE COAST
AND NOT NEARLY AS DEEP AS THE GFS MODEL PROJECTS. JETSTREAK WIND
ALOFT WILL HELP STRENGTHEN LOW CNTER CURRENTLY WEST OF CALIF AT
35N 147W. THIS ONE IS FCST TO AFFECT PANHANDLE WITH RAIN LATER THU
AND THUR NIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION AND WIND ALOFT FAVOR
LOCALLY STRONG E-SE GAP WIND. NO PUBLIC WIND WATCHES ISSUED YET
FOR SOUTHERN ZONES BUT DID BUMP MARINE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KTS THUR
NIGHT AND FRI. OVERALL PROABABILITY OF PRECIP GRIDS WERE
BROADBRUSHED IN COORDINATION WITH WFO ANC.

AFTER A BREAK IN THE STAEDY PRECIP LATER FRI TO MID DAY SAT
ANOTHER FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES MORE FROM THE SW THAN THE S SAT
NIGHT AND SUN. THIS SYSTEM MAY STAY CENTERED OUT IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BUT A GOOD PUSH OF 20-PLUS FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF AT THE START OF THE WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUE MON-TUES BUT NO REAL SOAKING PRECIP MAKERS IDENTIFIED
YET. THE 8-15 DAY FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL CENTER INDICATES
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND PRECIP FOR SE AK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-033-035-036-041>043.

&&

AHN/TA