Gale Warning 117, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Feb 1, 2012, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Feb 1, 2012, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

939 
FZAK51 PAJK 011235
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-020100-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL BRING STORM FORCE WIND INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEM MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK. A 974 MB STORM FORCE LOW
WILL MOVE IN THE SOUTHERN AK GULF THURSDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ011-020100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-020100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN...SNOW.
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-020100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN...SNOW.
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-020100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-020100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-020100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN...SNOW.
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-020100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-020100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT
13 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 14 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-020100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO
50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN...SNOW.
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-020100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT...
EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-020100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 1 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT
13 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jan 31, 4:51 PM AKST, 11 hours 9 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
451 PM AKST TUE JAN 31 2012

.SHORT TERM...CURRENT WEATHER IS SOMEWHAT ACTIVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TODAY. A WEAK 992 MB LOW IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT THE MOMENT BRINGING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND RAIN FROM ICE STRAIT SOUTHWARD. HYDABURG DID REPORT ONE GUSTS
TO 41 KT THIS MORNING AS THE LOW PASSED TO THE NW. THAT LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TODAY AND EXIT INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE IS RATHER QUIET WITH ONLY SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING FOR SKAGWAY.

 TONIGHT IS RELATIVELY QUIET AS WE ARE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ON AND
OFF LIGHT RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH, WILL
BE THE RULE OF THE NIGHT. WHERE SNOW IS SEEN ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES.

 PROBLEMS START SHOWING UP FOR WED AS THE NEXT MAJOR FRONT STARTS
MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE PARENT LOW IS CURRENTLY SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS. IT WILL BE GAINING STRENGTH THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 110 KT 500 MB JET,
FINALLY GAINING A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND 945 MB JUST SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND BY WED AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS A STRONG
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GULF WED. THE OUTSIDE
WATERS WILL BE THE FIRST TO FEEL THE EFFECTS AS STORM FORCE WINDS
PUSH THEIR WAY IN WED MORNING. BY WED AFTERNOON I HAVE STORM
WARNINGS UP FOR THE ENTIRE OUTSIDE WATERS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
STARTING TO ENCROACH INTO THE INSIDE PASSAGES. WIND GUSTS MAY BE
EVEN HIGHER AS 850 MB WINDS EXCEED 70 KT OVER THE GULF ON WED.
SEAS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING WITH THE LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH AND
STRONG WINDS.

 ON LAND, WINDS WILL ALSO BE STARTING TO INCREASE WED. WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WED AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FARTHER INLAND. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE INTO WED NIGHT. AS FOR PRECIP, MOST OF IT WILL STILL BE
OFFSHORE BY WED AFTERNOON, BUT THE OUTER COAST MAY START TO SEE
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP. WITH TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THEY
ARE CURRENTLY, THAT PRECIP WILL MOSTLY START OUT AS RAIN. A FEW
AREAS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN
AT FIRST DUE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.

 MODELS ARE DOING SOMEWHAT WELL BUT DIFFERENCES LINGER. GFS WAS
TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE SMALL LOW CURRENTLY GOING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND WAS TOO WEAK WITH THE NEXT STRONG STORM ON
WED. 0Z EC WAS A BIT BETTER BUT DIDN'T SHOW THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE LOW VERY WELL. THAT WAS CORRECTED IN THE NEW 12Z RUN.
NAM AND UK BOTH LOOKED REASONABLE BUT DIFFERED ON WHERE THEY
WANTED TO TAKE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LOW. IN THE END DECIDED TO
GO WITH THE NAM WITH THE 12Z EC MIXED IN IN SOME PLACES. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...TWO MAJOR EVENT EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST ALASKA
EARLY ON THE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. VERY STRONG
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LEAD OFF WITH UP TO 60 KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO HAVE 50 KT
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER CLARENCE STRAIT. MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE WILL
SEE STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. STOPPED JUST SHORT OF
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE OUTER COAST FROM CAPE SPENCER SOUTH TO
THE DIXON ENTRANCE. A LOW WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEAST GULF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MAX MARINE
GALES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE OUTER COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE WINDS
GUSTS APPROACHING WARNING LEVELS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST VICINITY CAPE
SUCKLING AND SLOWLY WIND DOWN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS. SOME
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AND THOSE LOCATIONS WITH A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK STILL ON THE GROUND...AND ON STRUCTURE
ROOFS...WILL NEED TO TAKE CARE TO PREVENT POSSIBLE STRUCTURAL
FAILURE UNDER VERY HEAVY SNOW LOADING. URBANIZED AREAS WITH
CLOGGED STREET DRAINS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

MOST OF THIS 2-PART PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. THE PROBLEM...AND CONCERN...WILL BE THE HAINES AND SKAGWAY
ZONES. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING SNOW
LEVELS, A HEAVY SNOW EVENT IS FORECAST FOR THESE TWO ZONES. IN
SKAGWAY, THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE
KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. FOR HAINES, HOWEVER, FORECAST SNOW LEVELS ARE
LOW ENOUGH TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT SNOW FROM IN TOWN TO THE BORDER
ALONG THE HIGHWAY. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY
SNOW WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS A RESULT. CONFIDENCE NOT
SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A THIRD PERIOD WARNING, AS THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN HEAVY RAIN AND HEAVY SNOW IS ONLY A FEW DEGREES. WITH
ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY WIND, SNOW LEVELS MAY RISE ENOUGH SUCH THAT
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
HIGHWAY.

MODEL AGREEMENT FAIR AT BEST DUE TO STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEMS INVOLVED. USED A BLEND OF GFS, UKMET, GEM, AND ECMWF
EARLY ON. MOVED TO A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS IN THE MID RANGE AND
THEN STRAIGHT HPC FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND AND PRECIP EVENT, BUT ONLY
AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE ON THE DETAILS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ022-026.
         STRONG WIND FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR AKZ020-021-024.
         STRONG WIND FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR AKZ029.
         WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-033-035-036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031-032-034-053.

&&

EAL/FRITSCH

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2012Every gale warning in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.