Winter Storm Watch 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
425 PM AKST SUN JAN 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE NAM AND GFS COMPUTER WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS FORECAST A LARGE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TO HOLD OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE GFS FORECASTS A SEPARATE LOW ALOFT ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
ATTU TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...AND THEN TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NAM MODEL FORECAST INCORRECTLY MISSES THIS
FEATURE.

BOTH MODELS FORECAST STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA AND THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS NORTHWARD OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA MONDAY...THEN OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON
TUESDAY...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL
OF NORTHERN ALASKA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY WEAKENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
YUKON...MODERATE NORTH WINDS ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA. THE ORIGIN OF THESE NORTH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE IN THE VERY
HIGH ARCTIC.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE QUITE COLD...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
REMISSION FROM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
BRING IN MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES TO THE INTERIOR. ON THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY / JANUARY 12 THROUGH JANUARY 17 /...NORTH
WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AN INFLUX OF COLD ARCTIC AIR OVER THE
REALM. IN THIS PATTERN OF WIND FLOW ALOFT...THE MILDEST
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OVER SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE CHUKCHI SEA.

THIS AFTERNOONS POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUDS
THAT COVERED THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR ARE MOVING EASTWARD.
CLEAR SKIES AND EXTENSIVE AREAS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S BELOW
ARE NOW EXPANDING FROM THE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.

EASTERN INTERIOR HIGHLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE BRISK SOUTHWEST
WINDS...POOR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW...AND WIND CHILLS TO 55
BELOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

A COUPLE OF INCHES MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS. WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS OVER ALL OF THE REALM ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE WESTERN
MAINLAND WILL BECOME CLOUDY AND HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE ARCTIC
ORIGIN OF THE INBOUND FLOW STARTING ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE SNOWFALL FROM THIS THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

A MODERATE NORTH PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADED TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH WINDS TO THE BERING
SEA COAST AND THE WESTERN INTERIOR STARTING ON TUESDAY.

OVERALL,,.ASIDE FROM THE BRIEF RISE IN INTERIOR TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN ALASKA WILL HAVE CONTINUED COLD
WEATHER ALL WEEK THIS WEEK AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ203-AKZ205-AKZ207-AKZ212-
AKZ213-AKZ214.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

TF JAN 12