Brisk Wind Advisory 12, NWS Fairbanks, AK

872 
FZAK51 PAFG 101149
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
249 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-110300-
249 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 997 MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTH AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A 1048 MB HIGH OVER SIBERIA
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A 975 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND
MOVES NORTH INTO THE MAINLAND AND WEAKENS TODAY. A 1000 MB LOW 
DEVELOPS IN THE MACKENZIE DELTA TONIGHT.

$$

PKZ225-110300-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
249 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

.TODAY...SW WINDS 20 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-110300-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
249 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT BY NOON.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING NW. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-110300-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
249 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER NOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-110300-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
249 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

.TODAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING E 10 KT BY NOON.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-110300-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
249 AM AKST TUE JAN 10 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS INCREASING TO 15 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT.
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING W 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.THU...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

DJH/CB JAN 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
511 AM AKST MON JAN 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT....THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE SAME PAGE THAT THERE
WILL BE A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE THIS WEEK. AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE...A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER. THE UPPER LOW IN THE
EASTERN BERING SEA/WESTERN ALASKA THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SINCE
ABOUT 12/23/11 WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE IN THE
EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY
SWINGING AROUND A MEAN DEEP LOW IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK. 500 MB
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SOME 600-700 METERS IN THE EASTERN
BERING SEA BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT WEEKEND! THIS WILL LEAD TO A BIG
TIME WARM-UP ALONG THE WEST COAST THAT HAS BEEN IN THE DEEP
FREEZE. THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF WARMING INTO THE INTERIOR AS THE
PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TODAY...THEN OVER EASTERN ALASKA
AND WESTERN CANADA TUE-WED. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO THE INTERIOR. THE
FLOW THEN WEAKENS BY THUR AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST IN ADVANCE
OF THE BUILDING BERING SEA RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND THE INTERIOR
WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD/DRY NLY FLOW ALOFT AND LIKELY
BACK IN THE DEEP FREEZE.

SURFACE...RIDGING DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW YESTERDAY THAT IS NOW ALONG THE YUKON/NWT BORDER.
THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND INTO CANADA BY THIS EVENING.
A STRONG NORTH PAC LOW EVIDENT ON SAT PIX ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH
OF ADAK TRACKS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
A TRIPLE POINT LOW TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TO THE AK PENINSULA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE DEVELOPMENT
AND DEPTH OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. THE U.S. MODELS ARE GENERALLY
WEAKER THAN THE EUROPEAN MODELS WITH THIS SECONDARY LOW. FEEL THAT
THE LOW WILL LIKELY BE DEEPER AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AS
IT FORMS ALONG A FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF THE ICE
EDGE.

INTERIOR...SOME COLD TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR THAT CLEARED OUT.  THE AIR MASS
ALOFT BEGINS TO RAPIDLY WARM IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS.  THIS SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE ZERO BY LATE TONIGHT ON THE HILLS AND IN
MANY VALLEYS BY TUESDAY.  THE TEMPS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD
THROUGH WED AND THEN WILL BEGIN TO COOL THU AS AN UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES EAST. SOME SNOW WILL WORK NORTH INTO PARTS OF THE FAR
WESTERN INTERIOR BY TUESDAY JUST TO THE EAST OF AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH PAC LOW. MOST OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR TO REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EAST WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER WEATHER LIKELY
AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND AS COLD NLY FLOW TAKES HOLD.

WEST COAST...IN THE SHORT TERM THE MAIN CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
LOW WIND CHILLS.  ISSUED A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE KOTZEBUE AREA
LATE LAST EVENING AS TEMPS AROUND 30 BELOW ARE COMBINING WITH
STRONGER SOUTHEAST WIND TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 65 TO 70 BELOW.
POINT HOPE AND WALES HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY HAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WIND CHILLS.  THE INCOMING LOW WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO PARTS OF THE
YUKON DELTA AND MUCH OF THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT.  THE
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY.  POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES IN PARTS OF ZONES 215 AND 216...AND
WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS.  AS THE CLOUDS AND SNOW SPREAD NORTH TEMPS
WILL MODERATE SIGNIFICANT...WITH MANY AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN 40 TO 55
BELOW TO EXPERIENCE TEMPS ABOVE ZERO FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE
OF WEEKS. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME STRONGER WIND NEAR
THE ALASKA RANGE IN ZONE 227 LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT INCOMING LOW AND HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY. THE FLOW
PROBABLY TOO SW FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FURTHER TO THE EAST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AK RANGE.

NORTH SLOPE...LOW WIND CHILLS IN SPOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW WIND
CHILLS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT ATIGUN PASS AND
ANAKTUVUK PASS AND HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE
PASSES. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPS AS IT IS POSSIBLE
THE ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING. WILL ALSO
EXTEND MOST OF THE ONGOING ADVISORIES INTO TONIGHT AND WILL ADD
ZONE 202 (THE NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST) BY TONIGHT AS TEMPS SHOULD
BECOME COLD ENOUGH BY THEN FOR SOME LOW WIND CHILLS.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ASIDE FROM
PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES. SNOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTH TO PARTS OF
THE ARCTIC COAST BY LATER TUE NIGHT INTO WED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING NORTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...A TRACE OR MORE OF SNOWFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT FAIRBANKS
EVERY DAY SINCE DECEMBER 18TH...OR A TOTAL OF 22 CONSECUTIVE DAYS.
ONLY 1992 HAD MORE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH AT LEAST A TRACE OF
SNOWFALL WITH 23. ONLY TWO OTHER TIMES...BOTH DURING THE SUMMER HAVE
THERE BEEN MORE DAYS IN A ROW WITH A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION AT
FAIRBANKS. DURING THE SUMMER OF 1941 THERE WAS A STRETCH OF 28
DAYS WITH A TRACE OR MORE OF RAIN. IN THE SUMMER OF 1949 THERE WAS
A STRETCH WITH 23 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A TRACE OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ227.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ220.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ212-
AKZ213-AKZ226.

WIND CHILL WARNING FOR AKZ209.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ215-AKZ216.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CB JAN 12