Small Craft Advisory 99, NWS Fairbanks, AK

887 
FZAK51 PAFG 172317
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
317 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-181230-
317 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
978 MB LOW 100 NM NORTHEAST OF BARROW WILL WEAKEN TO 988 MB AND
DRIFT WEST TO BE A 990 MB LOW 150 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW AT 4 PM
TUE. THE SECOND LOW...A 988 MB LOW NEAR POINT HOPE WILL BE
ABSORBED BY THE FIRST LOW MON EVENING. A LOW IN THE ALEUTIANS
WILL MOVE TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND AS A 989 MB LOW BY 4PM TUE.

$$

PKZ225-181230-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
317 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-181230-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
317 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-181230-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
317 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-181230-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
317 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-181230-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
317 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

TF/SDB SEP 12

920 
FZAK51 PAFG 181002
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
202 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-190115-
202 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 988 MB LOW 50 NM NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND
WEAKEN TO 995 MB 175 NM NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT BY 10 AM AK AKDT
WEDNESDAY. A 996 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE BEAUFORT SEA 125 NM
NORTH OF KAKTOVIK BY 10 AM AKDT THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ225-190115-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
202 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT...HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 7 FT.
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-190115-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
202 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT...HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 7 FT.
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-190115-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
202 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6 FT.
.WED...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-190115-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
202 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING
TO 6 FT...HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5 FT.
.WED...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-190115-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
202 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 25 KT BECOMING S DECREASING TO 15 KT AFTER NOON.
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...S WINDS 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

JK/CB SEP 12

046 
FZAK51 PAFG 182210
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
210 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-191230-
210 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
991 MB LOW 150 NM NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE WEST 10 KT AND WEAKEN
TO 994 MB BY 4 PM WED. 1030 MB HIGH WILL HOLD OVER THE RUSSIAN FAR
EAST. 986 MB LOW JUST WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN. A 990 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE BEAUFORT
SEA 125 NM NORTH OF KAKTOVIK AT 4 AM AKDT THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ225-191230-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
210 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT...HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT BY WED AM. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-191230-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
210 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT...HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT BY WED AM. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-191230-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
210 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-191230-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
210 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-191230-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
210 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

TF SEP 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
649 AM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE
BERING AND NORTH PACIFIC AND A RIDGE OVER NW CANADA AND EASTERN
ALASKA WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE MOIST SOUTH FLOW
OVER ALASKA AND BRING A SERIES OF CHINOOK EVENTS ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE.

SURFACE...
A 978 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEWARD PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO KIVALINA
AS A 988 MB LOW BY 4PM MON AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW INTO BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE TO
POINT HOPE TO FORT YUKON BY 4PM MON THEN DISSIPATE. STRONG SOUTH
GUSTY WINDS 40 MPH AND AREAS OF RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL
DIMINISH SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE WHERE STRONG CHINOOK WINDS ARE NOW OCCURRING BUT WILL
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON.

SW WINDS SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE MODERATE TO HIGH SURF ALONG
THE COASTS OF ZONES 207 209 S OF CAPE ESPENBERG.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT NOW STRETCHES FROM THIS LOW TO A 982 MB LOW NEAR
PRUDHOE BAY THEN EAST. THE PRUDHOE BAY LOW WILL MOVE TO 100 NM
NORTHEAST OF BARROW AS A 978 MB LOW BY 4PM MON AND THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN. THIS IS CAUSING NE STORM FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE ARCTIC
COAST AND WILL CAUSE NW WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH SURF.

A LOW IN THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND AS A 989
MB LOW BY 4PM TUE THEN WEAKEN. THIS WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO SW
ALASKA TUE.

ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OVER SW ALASKA WED BRINGING
ANOTHER STRONG CHINOOK TO THE ALASKA RANGE AND MORE HEAVY RAIN TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLLUTIONS THROUGH 4PM
TUE. AFTER THAT THE GFS MOVES THE LOW NEAR BARROW NORTHEAST FASTER
THAN THE NAM AND IS THE PREFERRED MODELS DUE TO THE SOUTH FLOW ALOFT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
SW WINDS SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE MODERATE TO HIGH SURF ALONG
THE COASTS OF ZONES 207 209 S OF CAPE ESPENBERG.

NW WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH HIGH SURF AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS WED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ216-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ227.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ207-AKZ209.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ220-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB SEP 12