Small Craft Advisory 98, NWS Fairbanks, AK

670 
FZAK52 PAFG 172323
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
323 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-181215-
323 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
978 MB LOW 100 NM NORTHEAST OF BARROW WILL WEAKEN TO 988 MB AND
DRIFT WEST TO BE A 990 MB LOW 150 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW AT 4 PM
TUE. THE SECOND LOW...A 988 MB LOW NEAR POINT HOPE WILL BE
ABSORBED BY THE FIRST LOW MON EVENING. A LOW IN THE ALEUTIANS
WILL MOVE TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND AS A 989 MB LOW BY 4PM TUE.

$$

PKZ200-181215-
NORTON SOUND-
323 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-181215-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
323 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-181215-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
323 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-181215-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
323 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING.
RAIN. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

TF SEP 12

292 
FZAK52 PAFG 181002
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
202 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-190115-
202 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 988 MB LOW 50 NM NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND
WEAKEN TO 995 MB 175 NM NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT BY 10 AM AK AKDT
WEDNESDAY. A 985 MB LOW NEAR ST PAUL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO NEAR
HOOPER BAY AND WEAKEN TO 990 MB BY 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING. A 987
MB LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT.

$$

PKZ200-190115-
NORTON SOUND-
202 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 15 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. FOG.
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-190115-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
202 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT...HIGHEST NORTH OF ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-190115-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
202 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT BY NOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-190115-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
202 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.TODAY...W WINDS 15 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

JK/CB SEP 12

575 
FZAK52 PAFG 182228
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
228 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-191230-
228 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
991 MB LOW 150 NM NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE WEST 10 KT AND WEAKEN
TO 994 MB BY 4 PM WED. 1030 MB HIGH WILL HOLD OVER THE RUSSIAN FAR
EAST. 986 MB LOW JUST WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN. A 990 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE BEAUFORT
SEA 125 NM NORTH OF KAKTOVIK AT 4 AM AKDT THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ200-191230-
NORTON SOUND-
228 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.TONIGHT...FROM GOLOVIN EASTWARD...S WINDS 15 KT BECOMING EAST.
WEST OF GOLOVIN...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...FROM GOLOVIN EASTWARD...SOUTHEAST WIND 15 KT BECOMING N.
WEST OF GOLOVIN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...FROM GOLOVIN EASTWARD...SW WIND 15 KT. WEST OF
GOLOVIN...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS FROM GOLOVIN EAST 3 FT. SEAS WEST
OF GOLOVIN 4 FT.
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-191230-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
228 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT WED AM. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-191230-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
228 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-191230-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
228 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT TUE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

TF SEP 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
224 PM AKDT SUN SEP 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE NAM AND GFS COMPUTER WEATHER FORECAST MODELS HAVE THE SAME
SOLUTION FOR THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NOW MOVING NORTH IN KUSKOKWIM BAY. INCREASED SPEED OF ITS
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL CARRY IT TO BARROW AT 10 AM MONDAY...AND
THEN SLOWLY WESTWARD TO 200 MILES NORTH OF POINT LAY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
THROUGH TUESDAY.

A SMALLER LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE SUN NIGHT. A LOW
WILL DEVELOP NEAR PRUDHOE BAY SUN NIGHT AND MOVE TO 100 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BARROW BY 4PM MON AND THEN DRIFT WEST.

A SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PRIBILOF
ISLAND WATERS MONDAY EVENING AND TO REACH THE YUKON DELTA TUESDAY.
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW IS NOT AT ALL AS STRONG AS CIRCULATION
AROUND THE FIRST LOW. THE SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE ENERGY LEVEL OF WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA WILL LESSEN CONSIDERABLY BY TUESDAY AND IS FORECAST BY THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO CONTINUE AT A LOW LEVEL UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND...WHEN A NEW NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. BEYOND THIS TIME...THE FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH FOR MUCH OF A CONFIDENCE FACTOR TO THE
FORECASTS. THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED.

THE DOWN SLOPE WINDS OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...TO THE EAST OF TODAYS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ARE HIGH. THE FAIRBANKS RADAR IS NOW
MEASURING SOUTH WINDS TO 100 KNOTS / 115 MPH. / THE HAZE...FROM
BLOWING DUST...HAS BEEN VISIBLE TO THE DISTANT SOUTH OF FAIRBANKS
SINCE SUNRISE.

THE VERY LARGE CLOUD SHIELD IN ADVANCE OF THE BRISTOL BAY LOW IS
STARTING TO DIMINISH IN EXTENT. THE THICKEST CLOUDS OVER THE REALM
ARE NOW OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND THE ARCTIC. INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR -60
DEGREES C...WHICH TODAY IS AT AN ALTITUDE NEAR 35 THOUSAND FEET.
THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS STRONGLY DEFINED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FRONT IS WRAPPED AROUND THE YUKON DELTA AND
EXTENDS THROUGH GALENA THROUGH 50 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE / 150
DEGREES WEST...WHICH IS ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH OF ANCHORAGE. THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE STRENGTH...BUT NOT UNTIL TONIGHT.

POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THE WEATHER FRONT
WRAPPED AROUND THE WRANGEL ISLAND LOW ADVANCING SOUTHWESTWARD.
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW IS NOT TOO STRONG...BUT HAS NOT LOST
WHAT STRENGTH IT DOES HAVE DURING THE DAY TODAY.

THERE ARE LARGE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY TODAY. AND THERE
IS A CLEAR ZONE ABOUT 50 MILES WIDE BEHIND THE WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BRISTOL BAY LOW. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SOME
HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE ALASKA RANGE...MOSTLY ON THE SOUTH
SIDE...AND IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME MODERATE RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE BRISTOL BAY LOW FRONT. SOME
24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS ARE...

PHELAN CREEK NEAR PAXON................1.35 INCHES
RICHARDSON HIGHWAY NEAR TRIMMS CAMP....3.99
FLAT...................................1.46
MCGRATH................................1.03

STREAMS IN THESE AREAS ARE AT LOW STAGES...SO NO PROBLEMS WITH
HIGH WATER ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ227.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

TF SEP 12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1247 AM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  11 S TOK                63.15N 143.01W
09/16/2012  M25 MPH                             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NORTH GUSTING

&&

PWEIMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1250 AM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  NORTH POLE              64.75N 147.36W
09/16/2012  U0 MPH                              AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            HIGH WINDS, POWER OUTAGE, 8 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN

0553 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  NORTH POLE              64.75N 147.36W
09/16/2012  U0 MPH                              AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            HIGH WINDS, POWER OUTAGE, 8 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN IN
            YARD

&&

PWEIMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1256 AM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  20 E CENTRAL            65.55N 144.16W
09/17/2012  M65 MPH                             AK   AWOS

            AT EAGLE SUMMIT

1256 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  20 W CENTRAL            65.55N 145.56W
09/17/2012  M65 MPH                             AK   AWOS

            AT EAGLE SUMMIT

&&

PWEIMER