Small Craft Advisory 36, NWS Fairbanks, AK

588 
FZAK51 PAFG 042159
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
159 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-051300-
159 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 982 MB LOW 150 NM NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND. THE LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 970 MB 450 NM NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY 10 AM AKDT
SUNDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTH. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CHUKCHI SEA TODAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE EAST TO BARROW SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

PKZ225-051300-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
159 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-051300-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
159 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT.
.SUN...S WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-051300-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
159 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT.
.SUN...S WINDS 35 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-051300-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
159 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-051300-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
159 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

CF/JK AUG 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
137 PM AKDT FRI AUG 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DISARRAY AFTER SAT. THE GFS HAS FLIP FLOPPED TO THAT OF
THE ECMWF OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE DEPTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE POLAR LOW.

LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ALCAN BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD INTO CANADA THROUGH SAT MORNING. THIS HAS BROUGHT MUCH
COOLER WEATHER THROUGH ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA. AN INTERMEDIARY
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE IS KEEPING UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSITS EASTWARD
TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY SAT MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE TO NEAR KODIAK BY SUN
MORNING WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN THE BERING SEA PROVIDING RAINFALL
OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD.

A STRONG RIDGE WITH TONS OF WARM AIR WILL EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD
FROM FAR EAST RUSSIA TO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST. THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE NEW MODEL
RUNS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE HIGH ARCTIC AND NOT
MOVE SOUTHWARD AS THE PREVIOUS RUNS HAD INDICATED. THIS IS
IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE NEW MODEL RUNS WOULD INDICATE THAT THE NEW
TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE WINDS WOULD BE ORIENTED MORE FROM THE
NORTHWEST RATHER THAN THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS COULD CREATE HAVOC
WITH ICE NEAR BARROW ON SUN NIGHT AND MON. GIVEN THE PROPOSED
STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE ARCTIC...IT
IS LIKELY THAT THE MODEL WINDS MAY BE UNDERDONE BECAUSE OF THE
COLD ADVECTION.

THERE WILL ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONTAL MOVEMENT SUN
NIGHT AND MON. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TO BARTER ISLAND BY
MON AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ON MON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS THE ARCTIC
SLOPE ON WED WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING IN OVER THE WEST COAST
FROM THE RE-BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM FAR EAST RUSSIA.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.
&&

CF AUG 12