Small Craft Advisory 35, NWS Fairbanks, AK

252 
FZAK52 PAFG 042200
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
200 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-051300-
200 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT SUNDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ200-051300-
NORTON SOUND-
200 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-051300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
200 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-051300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
200 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-051300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
200 PM AKDT SAT AUG 4 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

CF/JK AUG 12

073 
FZAK52 PAFG 051013
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
213 AM AKDT SUN AUG 5 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-060115-
213 AM AKDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT. A 1015 MB HIGH WILL
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT.

$$

PKZ200-060115-
NORTON SOUND-
213 AM AKDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.TODAY...SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
MORNING FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ210-060115-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
213 AM AKDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT
NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 3 FT NORTH
OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-060115-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
213 AM AKDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.TODAY...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-060115-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
213 AM AKDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT.
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

RL/CB AUG 12

316 
FZAK52 PAFG 052243
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
243 PM AKDT SUN AUG 5 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-061300-
243 PM AKDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 970 MB LOW 600 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL MOVE NORTH. A STRONG
WEATHER FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN
CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO THE BERING
STRAIT BY 4PM MON AND THEN CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST.

$$

PKZ200-061300-
NORTON SOUND-
243 PM AKDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-061300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
243 PM AKDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-061300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
243 PM AKDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT DECREASING TO SW 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING.
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-061300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
243 PM AKDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AUG 12

692 
FZAK52 PAFG 061008
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
208 AM AKDT MON AUG 6 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-070115-
208 AM AKDT MON AUG 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 965 MB LOW 650 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BARROW WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY AND WILL WEAKEN TO 976 MB BY 4 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT NEAR PRUDHOE BAY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 4 PM AKDT TODAY. THE FRONT WILL STRETCH
FROM THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE TO THE YUKON DELTA COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

PKZ200-070115-
NORTON SOUND-
208 AM AKDT MON AUG 6 2012

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. DRIZZLE...FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-070115-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
208 AM AKDT MON AUG 6 2012

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT BECOMING N WEST OF SLEDGE ISLAND AFTER NOON.
SEAS 5 FT...HIGHEST SOUTH AND EAST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-070115-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
208 AM AKDT MON AUG 6 2012

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT BECOMING NW AFTER NOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN...FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ220-070115-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
208 AM AKDT MON AUG 6 2012

.TODAY...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

RL/CB AUG 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
137 PM AKDT FRI AUG 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DISARRAY AFTER SAT. THE GFS HAS FLIP FLOPPED TO THAT OF
THE ECMWF OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE DEPTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE POLAR LOW.

LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ALCAN BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD INTO CANADA THROUGH SAT MORNING. THIS HAS BROUGHT MUCH
COOLER WEATHER THROUGH ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA. AN INTERMEDIARY
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE IS KEEPING UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS TRANSITS EASTWARD
TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY SAT MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE TO NEAR KODIAK BY SUN
MORNING WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN THE BERING SEA PROVIDING RAINFALL
OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD.

A STRONG RIDGE WITH TONS OF WARM AIR WILL EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD
FROM FAR EAST RUSSIA TO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST. THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE NEW MODEL
RUNS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE HIGH ARCTIC AND NOT
MOVE SOUTHWARD AS THE PREVIOUS RUNS HAD INDICATED. THIS IS
IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE NEW MODEL RUNS WOULD INDICATE THAT THE NEW
TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE WINDS WOULD BE ORIENTED MORE FROM THE
NORTHWEST RATHER THAN THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS COULD CREATE HAVOC
WITH ICE NEAR BARROW ON SUN NIGHT AND MON. GIVEN THE PROPOSED
STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE ARCTIC...IT
IS LIKELY THAT THE MODEL WINDS MAY BE UNDERDONE BECAUSE OF THE
COLD ADVECTION.

THERE WILL ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONTAL MOVEMENT SUN
NIGHT AND MON. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TO BARTER ISLAND BY
MON AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ON MON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS THE ARCTIC
SLOPE ON WED WITH WARM ADVECTION MOVING IN OVER THE WEST COAST
FROM THE RE-BUILDING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM FAR EAST RUSSIA.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225.
&&

CF AUG 12