Small Craft Advisory 19, NWS Fairbanks, AK

378 
FZAK52 PAFG 151055
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
255 AM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-160115-
255 AM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR COLD BAY WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN OVER NORTON
SOUND SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
YUKON DELTA MONDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ200-160115-
NORTON SOUND-
255 AM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-160115-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
255 AM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.TODAY...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-160115-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
255 AM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 10 KT BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-160115-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
255 AM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.TODAY...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

RF/EWP JUL 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
157 AM AKDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION OVER ALASKA IS SATISFACTORY. UPPER LOW NEAR
DALL POINT WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND WITH LITTLE NET MOVEMENT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIPPLE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC SLOPE TODAY...TRIGGERING SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK RIPPLE
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
ARE CLOSE TOGETHER...CARRYING THE SHORT WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE NAM DISSIPATES IT. GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS PREFERRED ON HANDLING THIS SECOND RIPPLE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE WEAK FLOW ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE WEST COAST. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE ARCTIC ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP VORTEX MOVES SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGH ARCTIC. THIS WESTERLY FLOW COULD
ADVANCE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
A LIGHTER FLOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR. THE 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN RUN IS NOT YET AVAILABLE...BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF
OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRANSIT EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE...
RAIN LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST WITH THE DALL POINT UPPER LOW
AND A WEATHER FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST. THE MAIN CLOUD SHIELD WITH
THE FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED ONSHORE NORTH OF BRISTOL BAY. THE
RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO POSTFRONTAL SHOWERS SUNDAY. SHOWERS
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND ARCTIC SLOPE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE FIRST UPPER RIPPLE MOVES NORTH. INSTABILITY OVER THE ARCTIC
SLOPE IS ON THE LOW END BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. INTERIOR AND WEST COAST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL. WEST WINDS TO 20-25 KT MAY OCCUR OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND
MARINE AREAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOCAL SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PROBLEM AREAS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

RF JUL 12