Small Craft Advisory 18, NWS Fairbanks, AK

450 
FZAK51 PAFG 151055
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
255 AM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-160115-
255 AM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL DRIFT EAST
TO THE MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA MONDAY. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE
ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA ON MONDAY.

$$

PKZ225-160115-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
255 AM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO
5 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-160115-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
255 AM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-160115-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
255 AM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT BECOMING SW LATE. FOG.
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 5 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-160115-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
255 AM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING E. FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-160115-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
255 AM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.TODAY...W WINDS 10 KT BECOMING E. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

RF/EWP JUL 12

241 
FZAK51 PAFG 152156
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
156 PM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-161215-
156 PM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC SLOPE OF ALASKA WILL 
DRIFT EAST OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA MON. A WEATHER FRONT IN THE
WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE OF
ALASKA MON AND INTO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA MON NIGHT. 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SIBERIA TO NEAR CAPE LISBURNE
LATE TUE.
 
$$

PKZ225-161215-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
156 PM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. FOG.
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TUE...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-161215-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
156 PM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. FOG.
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG... RAIN.
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-161215-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
156 PM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...WINDS INCREASING TO SW 25 KT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.MON...SW WINDS 25 KT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. FOG...DRIZZLE.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. RAIN. FOG. 
.WED...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-161215-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
156 PM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.MON...SW WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.WED...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-161215-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
156 PM AKDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT. FOG. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.WED...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

JUL 12

100 
FZAK51 PAFG 161107
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
307 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-170215-
307 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC SLOPE OF ALASKA WILL 
DRIFT EAST OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA MON. A WEATHER FRONT IN THE
WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE OF
ALASKA MON AND INTO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA MON NIGHT. 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM SIBERIA TO NEAR CAPE LISBURNE
LATE TUE.

$$

PKZ225-170215-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
307 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-170215-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
307 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TODAY...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-170215-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
307 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TODAY...SW WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-170215-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
307 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TODAY...S WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-170215-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
307 AM AKDT MON JUL 16 2012

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING SW. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

JK JUL 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
157 AM AKDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION OVER ALASKA IS SATISFACTORY. UPPER LOW NEAR
DALL POINT WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AROUND WITH LITTLE NET MOVEMENT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIPPLE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC SLOPE TODAY...TRIGGERING SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK RIPPLE
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR SUNDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
ARE CLOSE TOGETHER...CARRYING THE SHORT WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE NAM DISSIPATES IT. GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS PREFERRED ON HANDLING THIS SECOND RIPPLE. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE WEAK FLOW ALOFT OVER THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE WEST COAST. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE ARCTIC ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP VORTEX MOVES SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGH ARCTIC. THIS WESTERLY FLOW COULD
ADVANCE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
A LIGHTER FLOW AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR. THE 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN RUN IS NOT YET AVAILABLE...BOTH 00Z GFS/ECMWF
OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR WEDNESDAY. A SHORT WAVE IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRANSIT EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE...
RAIN LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST WITH THE DALL POINT UPPER LOW
AND A WEATHER FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST. THE MAIN CLOUD SHIELD WITH
THE FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED ONSHORE NORTH OF BRISTOL BAY. THE
RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO POSTFRONTAL SHOWERS SUNDAY. SHOWERS
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND ARCTIC SLOPE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE FIRST UPPER RIPPLE MOVES NORTH. INSTABILITY OVER THE ARCTIC
SLOPE IS ON THE LOW END BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. INTERIOR AND WEST COAST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL. WEST WINDS TO 20-25 KT MAY OCCUR OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND
MARINE AREAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOCAL SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PROBLEM AREAS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

RF JUL 12