Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2012

Small Craft Advisory 148, NWS Fairbanks, AK

October 21, 2012

NWS Fairbanks, AK issued this small craft advisory at Oct 21, 2012, 2:03 PM AKDT. It was in force for 13 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Oct 21, 2012, 2:03 PM AKDT (22:03 UTC)
Expired: Oct 22, 2012, 3:04 AM AKDT
In force: 13 hr
Issued by: NWS Fairbanks, AK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Oct 21, 1:07 PM AKDT, 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 21, 1:07 PM AKDT, 56 minutes before

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
107 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PROGS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 12Z TUE. 998 MB LOW NW OF THE GULF OF ANADYR AT
21/18Z PROGGED TO MOVE TO ABOUT 300 NM N OF BARROW BY 12Z
TUE...FILLING TO AROUND 1020 MB. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ALASKA
INTERIOR WILL WEAKEN A FEW MB TONIGHT THEN GRADUALLY REBUILD
THROUGH TUE AS IT EXPANDS OVER ALL OF THE NRN AK MAINLAND.
STRONG WINDS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON...THEN START TO DIMINISH.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE BERING STRAIT AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED
TO 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE SURF CONTINUING NEAR THE BERING
STRAIT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND NORTH OF KIVALINA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
A MODERATELY STRONG STORM IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO MOVE EWD OR
NEWD ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA/ARCTIC OCEAN WED THROUGH THU. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND AROUND 12Z WED.
CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON TIMING AND
TRACK...BUT ALL AGREE THAT THIS WILL BE A MODERATELY STRONG
SYSTEM. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS PRESENTED BY THE
GFS...DEVELOPING SW WINDS 30-40 KT FROM BARROW WWD WED...SHIFTING
TO W 25-30 KT WED EVENING. HIGH SURF AND POSSIBLY COASTAL FLOODING
COULD OCCUR WITH THIS SOLUTION. NAM WINDS APPEAR A BIT LESS THAN
THE GFS THROUGH THE END OF THE NAM RUN. ECMF CARRIES THE LOW ON A
TRAJECTORY MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH NO WIND ISSUES FOR THE
ARCTIC COAST. SO AT THIS TIME THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE DAY 3 AND 4 FORECAST. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED TO SEE HOW THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ213. THE WARNING FOR AKZ213 IS
SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

RF OCT 12

The office that day

Everything else NWS Fairbanks, AK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 21, 1:56 PM AKDT	Small Craft Advisory	AFG		24 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2012 Every small craft advisory in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.