Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2012

Small Craft Advisory 147, NWS Fairbanks, AK

October 21, 2012

NWS Fairbanks, AK issued this small craft advisory at Oct 21, 2012, 1:56 PM AKDT. It was in force for 24 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Oct 21, 2012, 1:56 PM AKDT (21:56 UTC)
Expired: Oct 22, 2012, 1:28 PM AKDT
In force: 24 hr
Issued by: NWS Fairbanks, AK

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

074 
FZAK51 PAFG 212156
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
156 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-221215-
156 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1000 MB LOW OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO 400 NM
N OF BARROW BY 4 AM TUE WEAKENING TO 1017 MB.

$$

PKZ225-221215-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
156 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN OR SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-221215-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
156 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-221215-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
156 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-221215-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
156 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-221215-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
156 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

RF/SB OCT 12

2 follow-up statements

285 
FZAK51 PAFG 221103
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
303 AM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-230215-
303 AM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
1002 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN. IT WILL BE ABOUT 600 NM NORTH OF BARROW AT 4 AM TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA WILL HOLD IN PLACE.

$$

PKZ225-230215-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
303 AM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE MORNING. 
SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-230215-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
303 AM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-230215-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
303 AM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

.TODAY...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-230215-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
303 AM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

.TODAY...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-230215-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
303 AM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

.TODAY...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

TF/JK OCT 12

848 
FZAK51 PAFG 222128
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
128 PM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-231215-
128 PM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1010 MB LOW 400 MILES NW OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO 750 MILES 
N OF THE MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA BY 4 PM WED WEAKENING TO 1024 
MB. A 1026 MB HIGH 400 MILES NW OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL BUILD 
TO A 1040 MB HIGH 500 MILES NW OF BARROW BY 4 PM TUE.

$$

PKZ225-231215-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
128 PM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-231215-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
128 PM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-231215-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
128 PM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-231215-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
128 PM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-231215-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
128 PM AKDT MON OCT 22 2012

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

RF/CC OCT 12

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Oct 21, 1:07 PM AKDT, 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 21, 1:07 PM AKDT, 49 minutes before

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
107 PM AKDT SUN OCT 21 2012

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PROGS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 12Z TUE. 998 MB LOW NW OF THE GULF OF ANADYR AT
21/18Z PROGGED TO MOVE TO ABOUT 300 NM N OF BARROW BY 12Z
TUE...FILLING TO AROUND 1020 MB. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ALASKA
INTERIOR WILL WEAKEN A FEW MB TONIGHT THEN GRADUALLY REBUILD
THROUGH TUE AS IT EXPANDS OVER ALL OF THE NRN AK MAINLAND.
STRONG WINDS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON...THEN START TO DIMINISH.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE BERING STRAIT AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED
TO 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE SURF CONTINUING NEAR THE BERING
STRAIT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND NORTH OF KIVALINA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
A MODERATELY STRONG STORM IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO MOVE EWD OR
NEWD ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA/ARCTIC OCEAN WED THROUGH THU. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND AROUND 12Z WED.
CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON TIMING AND
TRACK...BUT ALL AGREE THAT THIS WILL BE A MODERATELY STRONG
SYSTEM. THE WORST CASE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS PRESENTED BY THE
GFS...DEVELOPING SW WINDS 30-40 KT FROM BARROW WWD WED...SHIFTING
TO W 25-30 KT WED EVENING. HIGH SURF AND POSSIBLY COASTAL FLOODING
COULD OCCUR WITH THIS SOLUTION. NAM WINDS APPEAR A BIT LESS THAN
THE GFS THROUGH THE END OF THE NAM RUN. ECMF CARRIES THE LOW ON A
TRAJECTORY MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH NO WIND ISSUES FOR THE
ARCTIC COAST. SO AT THIS TIME THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE DAY 3 AND 4 FORECAST. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED TO SEE HOW THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ213. THE WARNING FOR AKZ213 IS
SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

RF OCT 12

The office that day

Everything else NWS Fairbanks, AK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 21, 2:03 PM AKDT	Small Craft Advisory	AFG		13 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2012 Every small craft advisory in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.