Small Craft Advisory 135, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
337 PM AKDT THU OCT 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...EVEN IN THE MID RANGE...
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES OF COURSE IN TIMING THE SHORT
WAVES. THE RIDGE ALOFT BREAKS DOWN AND A TROUGH ALOFT DIGS
SOUTHWARD OVER WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. COOLING AT LOW LEVELS
WILL BE FAIRLY DRAMATIC OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS IN PARTICULAR...AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS AT LEAST IN
COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE. NOT MUCH FURTHER COOLING APPEARS TO
BE IN THE WORKS FOR THE ARCTIC ZONES AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR THOUGH...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
INTERIOR.

A SURFACE LOW WILL WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC
AS THE TROUGH ALOFT DEVELOPS. THE GFS AND ECMF BOTH HAVE
THIS LOW AT ABOUT 978 MB NEAR 76N 165W AT 4PM SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER FRONTS MOVING SOUTH AHEAD OF
IT...BUT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL REMAIN
BASICALLY NORTHWESTERLY (VARYING FROM NORTH TO WEST). WE HAVE
SOME CONCERNS ABOUT BEACH EROSION IN ZONES 201 AND 202...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE THE "STORM" SURGE LESS THAN 1 FOOT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OPEN WATER DO GET UP TO 9 FT ON
SUNDAY THOUGH. AFTER CONFERING WITH WSO BRW...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES OR STATEMENTS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.
&&

DJH OCT 12