Gale Warning 74, NWS Fairbanks, AK

221 
FZAK52 PAFG 122133
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
133 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-131245-
133 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
1032 MB HIGH OVER CHUKOTKA WEAKENING AND DRIFTING WESTWARD THROUGH
SUN. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
CHUKCHI SEA ON SUN. 

$$

PKZ200-131245-
NORTON SOUND-
133 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-131245-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
133 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-131245-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
133 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-131245-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
133 PM AKDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

SDB/RT OCT 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
337 PM AKDT THU OCT 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...EVEN IN THE MID RANGE...
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES OF COURSE IN TIMING THE SHORT
WAVES. THE RIDGE ALOFT BREAKS DOWN AND A TROUGH ALOFT DIGS
SOUTHWARD OVER WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. COOLING AT LOW LEVELS
WILL BE FAIRLY DRAMATIC OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS IN PARTICULAR...AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS AT LEAST IN
COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE. NOT MUCH FURTHER COOLING APPEARS TO
BE IN THE WORKS FOR THE ARCTIC ZONES AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR THOUGH...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
INTERIOR.

A SURFACE LOW WILL WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC
AS THE TROUGH ALOFT DEVELOPS. THE GFS AND ECMF BOTH HAVE
THIS LOW AT ABOUT 978 MB NEAR 76N 165W AT 4PM SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER FRONTS MOVING SOUTH AHEAD OF
IT...BUT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL REMAIN
BASICALLY NORTHWESTERLY (VARYING FROM NORTH TO WEST). WE HAVE
SOME CONCERNS ABOUT BEACH EROSION IN ZONES 201 AND 202...BUT
THE MODELS HAVE THE "STORM" SURGE LESS THAN 1 FOOT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OPEN WATER DO GET UP TO 9 FT ON
SUNDAY THOUGH. AFTER CONFERING WITH WSO BRW...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES OR STATEMENTS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.
&&

DJH OCT 12