Small Craft Advisory 125, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1054 AM AKDT WED OCT 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT GFS/NAM/EUROPEAN RUNS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST POSITION AND CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF TYPHOON
JELAWIT.

FORECAST CENTRAL PRES AND POSITION OF EX-TYPHOON JELAWIT...
DATE/TIME   CNTRL PRES     POSITION
12Z WED     978 MB         51N/172W  ABOUT 150 NM S ADAK
00Z THU     976-978 MB     55N/170W  ABOUT 150 NM S ST PAUL IS
12Z THU     971-973 MB     58N/172W  ABOUT 150 NM S ST MATTHEW IS
00Z FRI     974-976 MB     NEAR ST MATTHEW IS
12Z FRI     978-980 MB     ABOUT 25-50 NM SW GAMBELL
00Z SAT     984-988 MB     ABOUT 50 NM NW GAMBELL
12Z SAT     990-994 MB     50-100 NM NNW GAMBELL

THE STORM WILL GENERATE GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OVER
NORTON SOUND AND ERN PKZ210. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE FROM THU AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE WET...
RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS SPREADING NWD ACROSS THE WRN INTERIOR
AND W COAST TONIGHT THOUGH THU. RAIN OR SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF W COAST/WRN INTERIOR FOR MOST OF THE
TIME THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF
0.5 TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT...WITH AMOUNTS UP
TO 2-3 INCHES OVER SOUTH SLOPES OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR
THROUGH FRI. SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SAT MAY BUT A BRIEF DENT IN THE FLOW GIVING A
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR. THIS TO
BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG REBUILDING OF THE RIDGE THROUGH SUN...
WITH HEIGHTS RISING TO MIDSUMMER LEVELS. WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND
THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUING THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WHILE THE EUROPEAN PUNCHES A STRONG SHORT WAVE
THROUGH BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN
RUN LOOKS LIKE A DISTINCT OUTLIER AND IT DIFFERS SUBSTANTIALLY
FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH LOOKS A LOT MORE LIKE THE GFS.
THUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...GFS AND THE GFS/EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEANS ARE PREFERRED.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE BERING SEA COAST
FROM DALL POINT TO THE YUKON DELTA AND FOR THE NORTON SOUND/BERING
SEA COASTLINE FROM CAPE DARBY TO THE BERING STRAIT INCLUDING LITTLE
DIOMEDE. MAXIMUM STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 5 FEET IS EXPECTED THU EVENING
AND THU NIGHT ALONG THE AKZ214 COAST...AND DURING THE DAY FRI ALONG
THE COAST FROM CAPE DARBY TO THE BERING STRAIT AREA. FOR THE REMAINING
COASTAL AREAS ALONG NORTON SOUND...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 2.5 TO 4 FEET...HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NORTON
BAY COAST. HIGH SURF MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG PARTS OF THE EASTERN
NORTON SOUND COAST...PARTICULARLY AT SHAKTOOLIK LATE THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRI WHERE S TO SSE WINDS OF 30-40 KT MAY OCCUR ALONG
WITH A MAXIMUM STORM SURGE OF AROUND 3.5 FEET. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN NORTON SOUND COAST
FROM NORTH OF UNALAKLEET TO CAPE DARBY THIS AFTERNOON. BEACH
EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS ALONG THAT STRETCH OF
THE COAST.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ211-AKZ213-AKZ214.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ212...WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

&&

RF OCT 12