Gale Warning 66, NWS Fairbanks, AK

666 
FZAK69 PAFG 051045
OFFAFG

EXPERIMENTAL OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
245 AM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-060145-
245 AM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 979 MB LOW NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTH TO
THE BERING STRAIT BY 4 AM AKDT SAT AND WEAKEN TO 993 MB.
THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
BEAUFORT SEA COAST FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ500-060145-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
245 AM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW IN THE EVENING. RAIN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG...RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-060145-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
245 AM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
FOG...RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG...RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ510-060145-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
245 AM AKDT FRI OCT 5 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
FOG...RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

CF/SDB OCT 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
504 AM AKDT THU OCT 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS AND BECOMING MUCH
CLOSER IN MID RANGE AS WELL. THE GFS HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT AND
ERRATIC OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT AND CONSTANT EVEN THROUGH MID RANGE. SO AT THIS
TIME...PUTTING SUPPORT WITH ECMWF.

RELATIVELY STRONG LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE BERING SEA AND IS MOVING
NORTHWARD EVER SO SLOWLY. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW PROGRESSION...THIS IS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR PROLONGED HIGH VELOCITY WINDS OVER A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL FETCH...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST.
FOR THESE REASONS...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ZONES 211 AND 213. THE SURGE VALUES ARE BEING FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT WHICH IS GOING TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT
EFFECT ON MANY AREAS.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD TO BE JUST INLAND OF THE WEST COAST
BY THIS EVENING AND THEN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST BY FRI AFTERNOON.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE CENTER LOCATED IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC WITH A VERY IMPRESSIVE 590H CENTER WILL MOMENTARILY HOLD
OFF THE BERING LOW. BY FRI NIGHT THE LOW ON THE WEST COAST BEGINS
TO FORCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING IN
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR FOR NORTHERN INTERIOR AFTER THE BRIEF
WARM-UP TODAY AND FRI. THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTH SLOPE WILL SEND IN REINFORCING COLD AIR BACK INTO ALASKA.

WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE TIGHT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
THE BERING LOW. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OVER THE AREA GUSTING TO
55 MPH WILL BE FAIRLY NORMAL OVER ZONES SUCH 211 AND 213.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ213.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ212.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ214.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215.
&&

CF OCT 12