Small Craft Advisory 123, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1233 PM AKDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING 996 MB LOW OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...WEAKENING INTO AN ELONGATED 1006 MB CENTER OVER
THE BEAUFORT SEA BY WED AFTERNOON AND TO NEAR 79N/120W IN THE
NORTHEAST ARCTIC BY THU AFTERNOON.

THE MAJOR WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE GENERATED
BY THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF TYPHOON JELAWIT. THERE IS
GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE CURRENT GFS/NAM/EUROPEAN RUNS
ON STORM TRACK AND CENTRAL PRES OUT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CENTRAL PRESSURE AND POSITION OF EX-TYPHOON JELAWIT...
DATE/TIME    CENTRAL PRES   POSITION
18Z TUE      976-978 MB     49N/178E
00Z THU      976-978 MB     55N/170W...ABOUT 100 NM S OF THE PRIBILOFS
00Z FRI      975-978 MB     175 NM W OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
00Z SAT      982-986 MB     ABOUT 50 NM NW GAMBELL

THIS SYSTEM AND THE WEAKER LOW PRECEDING IT WILL PRODUCE
RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER MOST AREAS OF THE WEST COAST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH THU.

ELY GALES DEVELOPING OVER PKZ200-PKZ210 AND ADJACENT COASTS
WED EVENING BECOMING SE THU MORNING. S TO SSE GALE TO STORM
FORCE WINDS OVER THESE AREAS THU AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD TUE NIGHT AND WED. BY SUN...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BECOME STRONGER AND EXPAND OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR...HEIGHTS
WILL APPROACH MIDSUMMER LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
INTERIOR AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
CURRENT GFS/EUROPEAN RUNS SUGGEST A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE
POSSIBLE BY TUE AS A SHORT WAVE PUNCHES IN FROM THE WEST.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
SHORELINE EROSION AND LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED
ALONG THE ZONE 214 COAST FROM DALL POINT TO THE YUKON DELTA
AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI. MAXIMUM STORM SURGE OF 3.5 TO 5 FEET
EXPECTED ALONG WITH HIGH SURF.

SHORELINE EROSION AND AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTON SOUND COAST FROM WEST OF CAPE DARBY
TO THE BERING STRAIT FROM MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT TO MIDNIGHT FRI
NIGHT. MAXIMUM STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 5 FEET EXPECTED ALONG WITH
HIGH SURF. AT NOME...FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BELMONT
POINT AND WEST BEACH AREAS. LOW SPOTS ON THE NOME-COUNCIL ROAD
EAST OF PORT SAFETY WILL LIKELY BE FLOODED.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE AFFECTED AREAS IN ZONES 211 AND
214 WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTON SOUND COAST...THERE WILL BE
SMALLER ELEVATIONS OF SEA LEVEL...NO COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN
THE MODEL HANDLING OF TROPICAL STORM MALISKI NOW NEAR 22N/141E
IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE PICKED UP IN THE
WESTERLY STORM TRACK AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE TRACK OF THIS
STORM IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN
ALASKA FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ211-AKZ213-AKZ214.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

&&

RF OCT 12