Gale Warning 69, NWS Fairbanks, AK

299 
FZAK51 PAFG 022203
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
203 PM AKDT TUE OCT 2 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-031245-
203 PM AKDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 996 MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE TO 250 NM
NORTH OF BARROW AT 4PM WED AS A 1006 MB LOW AND THEN CONTINUE
NORTHEAST. A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SOUTH TO THE
YUKON DELTA WILL MOVE INTO INTERIOR ALASKA WED. A STRONG LOW IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WED...TO
ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY 4PM THU AS A 975 MB LOW AND TO NEAR
PROVIDENIYA AS A 982 MB LOW BY 4PM FRI.

$$

PKZ225-031245-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
203 PM AKDT TUE OCT 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.FRI...SE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-031245-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
203 PM AKDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. FOG. 
.WED...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-031245-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
203 PM AKDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.TONIGHT...S WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-031245-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
203 PM AKDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.TONIGHT...S WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-031245-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
203 PM AKDT TUE OCT 2 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.WED...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

OCT 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
127 PM AKDT MON OCT 1 2012

UPDATE ADDS PARAGRAPH ON RAIN FOR THE WEST COAST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR.

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 145W WILL BE RAPIDLY BUILDING
DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. A DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL PUT A SMALL AND SHORT LIVED DENT IN THE RIDGE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AS IT MOVES NE...BUT THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY
STRONG REBUILDING OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER THE NRN AK MAINLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO HIGH SUMMER LEVELS OVER THE
INTERIOR. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FINE LATE
FALL WEATHER IN THE INTERIOR AND PUT THE ARRIVAL OF WINTER
ON HOLD. SUB-ADVISORY GAP WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE LIKELY
MUCH OF THE TIME THIS EVENING THROUGH THU.

THE SITUATION OVER THE BERING AND THE CENTRAL/WESTERN PACIFIC
WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A 994
MB LOW W OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL MOVE TO N OF CHUKOTKA
BY TUE AFTERNOON WHILE FILLING A FEW MB...THEN MOVE NE INTO
THE BEAUFORT SEA BY WED AFTERNOON FILLING TO AROUND 1005 MB.

A 990 MB LOW NEAR 51N/174W IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
IS PROGGED TO DISSIPATE E OF THE PRIBILOFS BY LATE TUE
AFTERNOON.

THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF TYPHOON JELAWAT ARE COMING
INTO VIEW SE OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. CURRENT MODELS ARE
CLUSTERING FAIRLY CLOSE IN THE FORECAST POSITION AND CENTRAL
PRES AT 00Z WED...975-978 MB NEAR 49N/178W. AT 00Z THU...
MODELS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...CENTRAL PRES AROUND 980 MB WITH CONSENSUS POSITION
50-100 MILES S TO W OF THE PRIBILOFS. BY 00Z FRI THE LOW
BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW...CENTRAL
PRES 975-980 MB NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND.

RAIN SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
TONIGHT CONTINUING OVER MOST AREAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
RAIN WILL BECOME SPOTTY WED. ANOTHER DOSE OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN WED NIGHT AND THU AS EX TYPHOON JELAWAT MOVES NORTH.
CURRENT MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1
INCH THROUGH THU WITH AREAS OF AN INCH PLUS. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
LIKELY TO BE ALONG SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN...
ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND SOUTH FACING SLOPES
ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TROPICAL STORM MALIKSI IN
THE WESTERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A
TYPHOON THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT GETS PICKED UP
IN THE WESTERLIES AND MOVES EAST. MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THIS
THIS FEATURE AND CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE FAR APART AND
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THAT
AREA.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
IN THE SHORT TERM...SOUTH WINDS 25-35 KT CONTINUING ACROSS NORTON
SOUND TUE MORNING WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON. TIDES WILL
BE AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL FROM CAPE DARBY W TO THE BERING
SEA. SOME MODERATE SURF IS LIKELY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT
BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PUT UP A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE EXPECTED AS EX TYPHOON
JELAWAT MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD
AS IT STARTS FILLING. WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
GALE TO MINIMUM STORM FORCE WINDS OVER NORTON SOUND AND WESTWARD
TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND THU NIGHT. CURRENT STORM SURGE MODEL RUN
TERMINATES AT 12Z FRI...BRINGING SEA LEVELS UP TO 2-4 FT ABOVE
NORMAL FROM CAPE DARBY W. WITH THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTION...HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS WOULD BE LIKELY FRI NIGHT AND SAT W OF CAPE DARBY.
SE GALES POSSIBLE ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST NW OF CAPE
KRUSENSTERN FRI INTO EARLY FRI EVENING. CURRENT TIDES AT NOME ARE
ABOUT 1.3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.
&&

OCT 12