Small Craft Advisory 111, NWS Fairbanks, AK

647 
FZAK51 PAFG 231403 CCA
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
602 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-240530-
602 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 988 MB LOW OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND WILL MOVE TO 80 MILES NORTHWEST
OF CAPE LISBURNE BY 4 AM MONDAY. A WEAK 992 MB LOW 50 MILES EAST OF
PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE TO 550 MILES NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY BY 4 AM
MON DEEPENING TO 992 MB.


$$

PKZ225-240530-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
602 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT BY NOON. SEAS 10 FT.
FOG...RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG...SNOW. 
.MON...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-240530-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
602 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT BY NOON. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. 
.MON...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-240530-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
602 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. 
.MON...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-240530-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
602 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING. FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG...RAIN. 
.MON...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-240530-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
602 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

.TODAY...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG. 
.MON...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

RF/DJH SEP 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
210 AM AKDT SUN SEP 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR...
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR AND ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE WILL END THIS EVENING
AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN
A LIGHTER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL BRING TO AN END TO
THE CHINOOK WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND BRING TEMPERATURES
DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS. A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED
AS A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA BY THURSDAY.

SURFACE...A 987 MB LOW OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND WILL MOVE TO
NORTHWEST OF CAPE LISBURNE BY LATE TONIGHT WHILE DEVELOPING A
TIGHTER CIRCULATION. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD...STRONG WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND. THE
LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. WIND GUSTS NEAR THE
ALASKA RANGE ARE NOW BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT THE NORMALLY WIND
SPOTS IN AKZ223 AND AKZ226 COULD SEW A FEW GUSTS TO 50 MPH LATER
TODAY AS ONE FINAL SHORT BURST OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...

HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT SHISMAREF LATE THIS
MORNING AND SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE COAST TO POINT HOPE
INCLUDING KOTZEBUE SOUND BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SURF WILL BE ALONG THE COAST FROM KIVALINA NORTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ALONG THE COAST IN AKZ210 LESS WAVE ACTION
IS EXPECTED BUT SEA LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM AKDT SUNDAY
FOR THE NENANA RIVER FROM CARLO CREEK TO ITS MOUTH AT THE TANANA
RIVER. AFTER A LONG CREST BETWEEN 14.5 AND 14.9 FEET...THE NENANA
RIVER AT HEALY HAS STARTED TO FALL. THE STAGE AT 11 PM SAT WAS
14.0 FEET. THE NENANA RIVER AT HEALY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL
TODAY AND TONIGHT. DOWNRIVER FROM HEALY...THE RIVER WILL REMAIN
HIGH AND NEAR ITS CREST FOR MOST OF TODAY. THE LOWER REACHES OF
THE RIVER NEAR NENANA ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
THIS EVENING.

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY
BUT MIN RH WILL NOT BE LOW ENOUGH FOR RED FLAGS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NENANA RIVER FROM CARLO CREEK ITS
MOUTH AT THE TANANA RIVER.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ226.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

RF SEP 12