Small Craft Advisory 101, NWS Fairbanks, AK

575 
FZAK52 PAFG 182228
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
228 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-191230-
228 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
991 MB LOW 150 NM NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE WEST 10 KT AND WEAKEN
TO 994 MB BY 4 PM WED. 1030 MB HIGH WILL HOLD OVER THE RUSSIAN FAR
EAST. 986 MB LOW JUST WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN. A 990 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE BEAUFORT
SEA 125 NM NORTH OF KAKTOVIK AT 4 AM AKDT THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ200-191230-
NORTON SOUND-
228 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.TONIGHT...FROM GOLOVIN EASTWARD...S WINDS 15 KT BECOMING EAST.
WEST OF GOLOVIN...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...FROM GOLOVIN EASTWARD...SOUTHEAST WIND 15 KT BECOMING N.
WEST OF GOLOVIN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...FROM GOLOVIN EASTWARD...SW WIND 15 KT. WEST OF
GOLOVIN...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS FROM GOLOVIN EAST 3 FT. SEAS WEST
OF GOLOVIN 4 FT.
.THU...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-191230-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
228 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT WED AM. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-191230-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
228 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-191230-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
228 PM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT TUE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

TF SEP 12

386 
FZAK52 PAFG 191052
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
252 AM AKDT WED SEP 19 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-200200-
252 AM AKDT WED SEP 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 994 MB LOW 200 NM NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT WILL DRIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN TO 1000 MB BY 4 PM AKDT THURSDAY 200 NM
NORTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND. A 993 MB LOW ALONG THE YUKON DELTA
COAST WILL MOVE TO NEAR NOME AND WEAKEN TO 1000 MB BY 4 AM AKDT
THURSDAY.  


$$

PKZ200-200200-
NORTON SOUND-
252 AM AKDT WED SEP 19 2012

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-200200-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
252 AM AKDT WED SEP 19 2012

.TODAY...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-200200-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
252 AM AKDT WED SEP 19 2012

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. FOG.
.THU...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 5 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-200200-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
252 AM AKDT WED SEP 19 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO
7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

JM/CB SEP 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
450 PM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC UP TO THE BERING SEA COAST OF THE ALASKA MAINLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE
REALM...MAINLY THE ALASKA RANGE AND IN THE WEST.

THE FIRST IN THE SERIES IS A WEAKENING LOW ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH
OF BARROW. THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT STRONG WINDS TO THE ARCTIC AND
NORTHWEST COASTAL WATERS...THE ARCTIC OFFSHORE WATERS...AND A GOOD
PORTION OF THE INTERIOR.

THE FAIRBANKS WEATHER RADAR HAS BEEN OBSERVING WELL DEFINED
PLUMES OF BLOWING SNOW OFF THE ALASKA RANGE MOUNTAINS...FROM MOUNT
MCKINLEY SINCE 7 PM SATURDAY...AND FROM MOUNT HAYES SINCE 1 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. SUCH FEATURES ARE RARELY SEEN ON THIS RADAR...AND
THEY REFLECT STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THESE PLUMES ARE
NOT DISCERNIBLE ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT ARE EASILY
SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY.

THE SECOND LOW IN THE SERIES IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS NOW AND WILL REACH NUNIVAK ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSOR.

THE THIRD LOW IN THE SERIES IS NOT YET FIRMLY IN HAND...BUT THE
GFS COMPUTER WEATHER FORECAST MODEL PROJECTS IT TO MOVE AT A HIGH
SPEED...ABOUT 70 / SEVENTY / MPH...NORTHWARD OUT OF THE PACIFIC TO
REACH THE ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY EVENING. AGAIN...SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS NOT YET DEFINED A CLEAR PATTERN THAT SUCH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MUST HAVE TO BE CREDIBLE. HENCE...THE CONFIDENCE
FACTOR IS NOT HIGH YET. IT IS CLEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BE THE
ONE MOST CRITICAL TO NORTHERN ALASKA WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THIS
WEEK.

THE COMMONLY USED TERM APPLIED TO OUR THIRD LOW IS... A PINEAPPLE
EXPRESS... MEANING THAT ITS PATTERN INCLUDES STRONG FLOW ALOFT
FROM THE PACIFIC NEAR HAWAII STRAIGHT NORTH TO THE ALASKA
MAINLAND. THE GFS COMPUTER WEATHER FORECAST MODEL FORECASTS THE
SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN...BUT NOT TO A GREAT EXTENT. SINCE THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER LAND ONCE IT REACHES ALASKA...IT WILL
NOT HAVE THE FLUX OF ENERGY FROM THE OCEAN TO FUEL ITS POWER.

THE IMPORTANT PART OF THE PATTERN IS THE COMPRESSION OF FLOW OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS THE BASIS OF THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ZONES
223...225...226 FOR ALL DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE STRONG INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO THE BROOKS RANGE HIGHLANDS. SIX INCHES OF NEW SNOW WAS
REPORTED IN ATIGUN PASS THIS AFTERNOON. INDEED...THIS AFTERNOONS
POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION
AREA ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE. SUCH MEDIUM SIZED
WEATHER FEATURES SUCH AS THIS ONE CAN BRING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. THIS ONE HAS DONE SO. THIS
AFTERNOONS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS EXTENSIVE AREAS IN
THE BROOKS RANGE COVERED BY SNOW.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE WEATHER THAT THE THE THIRD LOW
IS EXPECTED TO BRING TO THE INTERIOR IS WARM TEMPERATURES...INTO
THE 60S LATER THIS WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS PREDICT
ONGOING MILD WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REALM FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS OR
SO. THE SNOW COVER IN THE BROOKS RANGE NOTHWITHSTANDING...REAL
WINTER IS...FOR NOW...FAR AWAY FROM NORTHERN ALASKA.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. WINDS OVER THE
BERING AND CHUKCHI SEA COAST WILL MOSTLY BE FROM THE NORTH...A
DIRECTION OF WIND THAT DISFAVORS HIGH TIDES AND SURF...EXCEPT FOR
THE NORTH SHORE OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL IN THE ALASKA RANGE ON SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WAS INTERCEPTED MAINLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
ONLY A SMALL CREST -- LESS THAN ONE FOOT -- WAS OBSERVED ON
PHELAN CREEK NEAR PAXON.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ON SUNDAY...THE GREY HAZE BETWEEN FAIRBANKS AND THE ALASKA RANGE
WAS BLOWING DUST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEIR NORTHERN FOOTHILLS.
THE WIND QUICKLY FANNED THE DRY CREEK FIRE INTO RENEWED RAPID
GROWTH...THIS AFTER WEEKS OF GENTLE SMOLDERING. SMOKE WAS RAPIDLY
BLOWN NORTHWARD INTO FAIRBANKS SUNDAY EVENING. THEN...LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THERE WAS A LARGE DARK RED
DOME OVER THE THE FIRE. SUCH A WILDFIRE EVENT IS VERY RARE IN
ALASKA.

THE RESUMPTION OF HIGH WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE ON WEDNESDAY
COULD BRING A RESUMPTION TO THE DRY CREEK FIRE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ240-PKZ245.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

&&

TF SEP 12