High Wind Watch 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

591 
WWAK73 PAFG 181049
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
249 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

AKZ223-190000-
/X.UPG.PAFG.HW.A.0003.120919T1500Z-120920T0800Z/
/X.NEW.PAFG.HW.W.0008.120919T1500Z-120920T0500Z/
/X.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0018.120918T1400Z-120919T0300Z/
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-
INCLUDING...SALCHA...DELTA JUNCTION...FORT GREELY...
HARDING/BIRCH LAKE...DRY CREEK...DOT LAKE...HEALY LAKE
249 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...FOR DELTA JUNCTION AND AREAS SOUTH.

* WINDS...GUSTING TO AROUND 50 MPH TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND GUSTING
  TO AROUND 70 MPH WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST WIND
  WILL BE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG WIND WILL BEGIN TO
  DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. PROPERTY DAMAGE MAY OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR
EXPECTED. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PREVENT PROPERTY
DAMAGE. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR
EXPECTED. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY
BE BLOWN ABOUT BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ225-190000-
/X.UPG.PAFG.HW.A.0003.120919T1500Z-120920T0800Z/
/X.NEW.PAFG.HW.W.0008.120919T1200Z-120920T0200Z/
/X.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0018.120918T1200Z-120919T0300Z/
DENALI-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA
249 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES.

* WINDS...GUSTING TO 60 MPH TODAY AND TO 80 MPH WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING...AND THEN DIMINISH A
  BIT THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST WIND WILL BE DURING THE DAY
  WEDNESDAY. 

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. PROPERTY DAMAGE MAY OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR
EXPECTED. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PREVENT PROPERTY
DAMAGE. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR
EXPECTED. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY
BE BLOWN ABOUT BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ226-190000-
/X.UPG.PAFG.HW.A.0003.120919T1500Z-120920T0800Z/
/X.NEW.PAFG.HW.W.0008.120919T1500Z-120920T0800Z/
/X.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0018.120918T1400Z-120919T0300Z/
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
INCLUDING...MENTASTA LAKE...BLACK RAPIDS...DONNELLY DOME...
TRIMS CAMP...EAGLE TRAIL...MINERAL LAKE
249 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
AKDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATION...NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES WEST OF THE TOK CUTOFF.

* WINDS...GUSTING TO 55 MPH TODAY AND TO 75 MPH WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING MORNING. THE STRONGEST
  WIND WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. PROPERTY DAMAGE MAY OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR
EXPECTED. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PREVENT PROPERTY
DAMAGE. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR
EXPECTED. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY
BE BLOWN ABOUT BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ224-190000-
/X.NEW.PAFG.HW.A.0004.120919T1200Z-120920T0800Z/
UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY-
INCLUDING...TOK...TANACROSS...EAGLE...TETLIN...NORTHWAY...ALCAN...
CHICKEN...BOUNDARY
249 AM AKDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. 

* LOCATION...NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE FROM TOK TO TANACROSS.

* WINDS...SOUTH 25 TO 40 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 55 MPH NEAR 
  THE ALASKA RANGE.  

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WIND WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
  MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. PROPERTY DAMAGE MAY OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS HAZARDOUS HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE TO PREVENT PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
649 AM AKDT MON SEP 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE
BERING AND NORTH PACIFIC AND A RIDGE OVER NW CANADA AND EASTERN
ALASKA WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE MOIST SOUTH FLOW
OVER ALASKA AND BRING A SERIES OF CHINOOK EVENTS ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE.

SURFACE...
A 978 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEWARD PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO KIVALINA
AS A 988 MB LOW BY 4PM MON AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW INTO BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE TO
POINT HOPE TO FORT YUKON BY 4PM MON THEN DISSIPATE. STRONG SOUTH
GUSTY WINDS 40 MPH AND AREAS OF RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL
DIMINISH SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE WHERE STRONG CHINOOK WINDS ARE NOW OCCURRING BUT WILL
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON.

SW WINDS SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE MODERATE TO HIGH SURF ALONG
THE COASTS OF ZONES 207 209 S OF CAPE ESPENBERG.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT NOW STRETCHES FROM THIS LOW TO A 982 MB LOW NEAR
PRUDHOE BAY THEN EAST. THE PRUDHOE BAY LOW WILL MOVE TO 100 NM
NORTHEAST OF BARROW AS A 978 MB LOW BY 4PM MON AND THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN. THIS IS CAUSING NE STORM FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE ARCTIC
COAST AND WILL CAUSE NW WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH SURF.

A LOW IN THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND AS A 989
MB LOW BY 4PM TUE THEN WEAKEN. THIS WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO SW
ALASKA TUE.

ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OVER SW ALASKA WED BRINGING
ANOTHER STRONG CHINOOK TO THE ALASKA RANGE AND MORE HEAVY RAIN TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLLUTIONS THROUGH 4PM
TUE. AFTER THAT THE GFS MOVES THE LOW NEAR BARROW NORTHEAST FASTER
THAN THE NAM AND IS THE PREFERRED MODELS DUE TO THE SOUTH FLOW ALOFT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
SW WINDS SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE MODERATE TO HIGH SURF ALONG
THE COASTS OF ZONES 207 209 S OF CAPE ESPENBERG.

NW WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH HIGH SURF AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS WED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ216-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ227.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ207-AKZ209.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ220-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB SEP 12