Gale Warning 95, NWS Fairbanks, AK

576 
FZAK52 PAFG 162223
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
123 PM AKST SUN DEC 16 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-171330-
123 PM AKST SUN DEC 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 993 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO NORTON SOUND
AS A 990 MB LOW BY 3PM MON AND THEN MOVE INLAND.

$$

PKZ200-171330-
NORTON SOUND-
123 PM AKST SUN DEC 16 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT. SNOW.
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...S WINDS 5 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-171330-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
123 PM AKST SUN DEC 16 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SNOW.
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 35 KT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-171330-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
123 PM AKST SUN DEC 16 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SNOW.
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-171330-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
123 PM AKST SUN DEC 16 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 5 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 35 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 35 KT.  

$$

SDB/RT DEC 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
341 PM AKST SAT DEC 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY DYNAMIC WINTER PATTERN FOR NORTHERN ALASKA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL WEEK. DEEP COLD LOW ALOFT ANCHORED NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL
ISLAND WILL GRADLY ROTATE CYCLONICALLY WWD THRU MIDWEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR PROGRESSIVE ALBEIT LOW HEIGHT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CWA.

AT THE SURFACE...989 MB LOW WEST OF BARROW MOVG IN THE HIGH ARCTIC
AND PRES GRAD RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVR THE WRN NORTH SLOPE. WEAK LOW
NEAR GAMBELL MOVG EWD AND DSPTG NXT 18 HRS. 1010MB HIGH NR GALENA
DRFTG E TO BE NEAR FORT YUKON MON AM. REMNANT 976 MB LOW NEAR
CAPE YAKATAGA WKNG IN PLACE WITH INLAND REDEVELOPMENT CENTERED EAST
OF WHITEHORSE AND WKNG IN PLACE.

IN THE SHORT TERM..THE MOST SGFNT FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE LOW
MOVING OFF OF KAMCHATKA AND INTO THE WRN BERING SEA ATTM. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE NOW COME INTO AGREEMENT ON MOVING THIS FEATURE
QUICKLY EWD AND DEEPENING THE LOW TO ABT 987MB NEAR THE YUKON
DELTA BY 12Z MON. GIVEN THE FLOW ALOFT AND THE PATH EAST OF THE
DATELINE NEAR THE ICE EDGE...WE HAVE ACCEPTED THIS SOLUTION AND DO
NOT FOLLOW THE SGFNTLY SLOWER NAM MOVEMENT. ON THE PLUS SIDE...ALL
OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW KEEP THE DEEPENING NPAC SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE ALEUTIANS AND THEN INTO THE WRN GULF OF ALASKA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE BERING MID-WEEK AND THEN MOVG A BIT EWD
THU. THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE WILL BE INFLUENCED BY TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES MOVING NWD ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
THE ECMWF CONTS TO TAKE SOME SHORT WAVE...THOUGH WHICH ONE DIFFERS
FROM RUN TO RUN...AND BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. THE GFS HAVE BEEN HAD
SEVERAL RUNS NOW WITH CONSISTENTLY CUTTING OFF A HIGH ALOFT OVER NW
ALASKA OR THE NORTH SLOPE BY NEXT WEEKEND...AND THIS IDEA MAY BE
GAINING SUPPORT FROM THE GEM. IN ANY CASE...DETAILS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...ESPCLY CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
WEST COAST IN MOST SCENARIOS WOULD BE MILDER WITH CHANCE OF PRECIP.

NORTH SLOPE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS FOR BARROW THIS EVENING.
CONTINUED COLD ERN ZONES ZONES.

WEST COAST...HAVING FAVORED THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A DEEPER
AND FASTER BERING LOW...WE HAVE ISSUED BLIZ WATCH FOR ZONE 214 AND
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND PORTION OF 213. THIS WOULD BE A SHORT LIVED
BLIZ IF IT HAPPENS...AND SYSTEM LIKELY MOVG TOO FAST FOR ANY OTHER
WINTER WEATHER HAZARD.

INTERIOR...SNOW ADVISORIES REMAIN BUT WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING FAR
SE INTERIOR. SOME MODERATION WRN ZONES AS SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE BERING. MODERATION INTO CENTRAL ZONES WILL NOT
REALLY OCCUR UNTIL TUE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ202.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ224-AKZ226.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

RT DEC 12