Brisk Wind Advisory 188, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
645 AM AKST SUN DEC 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM WRANGEL ISLAND SOUTH OVER KAMCHATKA
WILL PROGRESS EAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA TUE AND WED. THIS IS
CAUSING SW FLOW OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH TUE WHICH WILL ALLOW
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE LIES FROM BARTER ISLAND TO DELTA AND WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE ALCAN BORDER LATE TONIGHT. FLURRIES AND LOW
CLOUDS E OF THE TROUGH WILL CLEAR ALONG THE TROUGH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN 10 TO 20 BELOW BUT WILL DROP TO 30 TO
50 BELOW WEST OF THE TROUGH.

AS SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIES ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WILL
MOVE TO UNALAKLEET TO BARROW BY 3PM SUN AND TO ATIGUN PASS TO
DEADHORSE BY 3AM MON. THIS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE THAT WILL MOVE NE UNDER THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

A THIRD AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL
MOVE TO THE WEST COAST OVER ALASKA BY 3AM MON AND INTO THE WESTERN
INTERIOR BY 3PM SUN. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MUCH STRONGER SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL BRING IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND WINDS.

SURFACE...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COVERS MOST OF INTERIOR NOW AND WILL SPREAD
OVER THE SE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE
IN ZONE 224 WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILD IN AND
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT FROM WAINWRIGHT TO THE YUKON DELTA WILL MOVE EAST TO
PRUDHOE BAY BY 3AM MON AND THEN REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY. THERE ARE
FLURRIES WITH THIS FRONT THAT MOVES NE WITH THE FRONT. SOME LIGHT
SNOW OVER NORTON SOUND WILL OCCUR TODAY.

A 995 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE YUKON
DELTA AS A 990 MB LOW BY 3AM MON...TO NEAR STUART ISLAND AS A 996
MB LOW BY 3PM MON AND TO HUSLIA BY 3AM TUE. SINCE THIS FEATURE IS
TRACKING EAST ALONG THE ICE EDGE TONIGHT THIS COULD HAVE SOME
POLAR LOW DEVELOPMENT AND BE MUCH DEEPER THAN ANY MODELS SHOW. EXPECT
2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR SOUTH OF KOTZEBUE. ALSO EXPECT GALE FORE WINDS
NEAR THE LOW. FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE FORECAST BLIZZARDS FOR ZONES
213 AND 214 TONIGHT AND MON...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR
ZONES 211 AND 212 LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON AM. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT SNOW FALL IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL BE JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MON BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLLUTIONS ALOFT. AT THE
SURFACE THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH
THE STRONG SURFACE LOW COMING IN FROM THE BERING SUN NIGHT AND MON.
FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION WITH A DEEP SOLUTION THAN THE NAM. DUE TO
THE STRONG UPPER AIR DYNAMICS AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION THIS SHOULD BE A STRONG FEATURE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ209.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ224-AKZ226.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

JB DEC 12