Flood Watch 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

756 
WGAK69 PAFG 032224
FFAAFG

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
224 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012

AKZ226-032330-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-120705T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
INCLUDING...MENTASTA LAKE...BLACK RAPIDS...DONNELLY DOME...
TRIMS CAMP...EAGLE TRAIL...MINERAL LAKE
224 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR THE CHISANA AND NABESNA RIVERS...

THE HIGH WATER CAUSED BY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS IS
MOVING DOWN TO THE LOWER REACHES OF THE CHISANA AND NABESNA RIVERS
AND THE THREAT OF FLOODING HAS ENDED.

$$

AKZ224-050000-
/O.CON.PAFG.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-120705T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY-
INCLUDING...TOK...TANACROSS...EAGLE...TETLIN...NORTHWAY...ALCAN...
CHICKEN...BOUNDARY
224 PM AKDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE CHISANA...NABESNA AND TANANA RIVERS...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* THE CHISANA...NABESNA...AND TANANA RIVERS

* THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

* PERSISTENT RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING ACROSS THE UPPER TANANA RIVER
  VALLEY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE EASTERN
  ALASKA RANGE AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE TANANA YUKON UPLANDS. SOME
  LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN THE PAST FEW
  DAYS.

* THE CHISANA AND NABESNA RIVERS AND THE TANANA RIVER FROM
  NORTHWAY TO THE ROBERTSON RIVER ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR
  BANKFULL BY WEDNESDAY. MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING
  AREAS ALONG THESE RIVERS. WATER LEVELS WILL BE HIGH AND AN
  INCREASED AMOUNT OF DEBRIS IS EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

823 
WGAK69 PAFG 042142
FFAAFG

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
142 PM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

AKZ224-042245-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-120705T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY-
INCLUDING...TOK...TANACROSS...EAGLE...TETLIN...NORTHWAY...ALCAN...
CHICKEN...BOUNDARY
142 PM AKDT WED JUL 4 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CHISANA...NABESNA...AND TANANA RIVERS 
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.  

$$

CB

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
235 PM AKDT MON JUL 2 2012

UPDATED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY PARAGRAPH.

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR...
A WEAK UPPER LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF MAYO IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO 150
MILES EAST OF NORTHWAY BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WOBBLE AROUND
SLOWLY IN A CYCLONIC TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON HANDLING THIS SYSTEM...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CARRIES THIS
FEATURE AS A CLOSED CENTER THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE MEANING IT
OUT INTO A TROUGH.

A DEEP 526 DAM UPPER LOW NEAR 67N/163E IS PROGGED TO MORE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND BY TUE AFTERNOON. CURRENT RUNS OF
THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN GEM AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION FOR TUE AFTERNOON...00Z ECMWF AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITIONS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST.
BY WED AFTERNOON THE LOW CENTER WILL LIKELY BE OVER BRISTOL BAY OR
THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ALASKA INTERIOR AND ARCTIC REGIONS
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A WEAKLY CYCLONIC EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ON ITS SOUTHEASTWARD COURSE.

SURFACE...
992 MB LOW OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
TUE WHILE A NEW CENTER DEVELOPS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND MOVES
EASTWARD. ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITION FOR THE NEW LOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IS AROUND 50-100 MILES WEST OF DALL POINT. THE MOST
LIKELY LOW POSITION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER OUTER
BRISTOL BAY. A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIE EAST-WEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA INTERIOR. QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN PUTS THE MEAN CENTER NEAR KUSKOKWIM BAY BY 12Z WED...
AND THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AGREES WELL ON THIS POSITION. THE CANADIAN
GEM IS POSITION IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE WEST. FOR 12Z WED...
THE 12Z ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION
FOR THIS FEATURE...OPERATIONAL GFS CALLS FOR A FEW MB WEAKER
CENTER WITH CONSIDERABLY SLOWER MOVEMENT THAN THE ECMWF
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND SLOWER THAN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN AS WELL.

THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS WRAPAROUND SHOWERS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR...ALONG
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF THE WEST COAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE WEAKENING GULF OF ANADYR
LOW AND THE NEW CENTER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA FROM THE INTERIOR
ARCTIC PLAIN SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS.

ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST...AREAS OF FOG REDEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...
MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER A WEAKLY
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ALOFT AROUND A MEAN LOW CENTER OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL. THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE PATTERN
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR.
ANY SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN COULD INCREASE SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ISSUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR. A FEW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GOODPASTER RIVER AT POGO MINE IS EXPECTED
TO CREST AT A LITTLE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE FALLING TONIGHT. HIGH WATER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG
THE GOODPASTER RIVER AS WELL. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUED HIGH LEVELS ON THE
GOODPASTER RIVER...AND RISES IN THE LEVELS OF THE SALCHA...
NABESNA...SALCHA...AND TANANA RIVERS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ222-AKZ223.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

RF JUL 12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
235 PM AKDT MON JUL 2 2012

AKZ222-223-042245-
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-
INCLUDING...FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...EIELSON AFB...ESTER...
NORTH POLE...MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...FOX...CHATANIKA...
CHENA HOT SPRINGS...SOURDOUGH CAMP...SALCHA...DELTA JUNCTION...
FORT GREELY...HARDING/BIRCH LAKE...DRY CREEK...DOT LAKE...
HEALY LAKE
235 PM AKDT MON JUL 2 2012

...HIGH WATER EXPECTED ON THE TANANA RIVER THIS WEEK...

PERSISTENT RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING ACROSS THE UPPER TANANA RIVER VALLEY
AND OTHER DRAINAGES FEEDING THE TANANA RIVER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND OVER PORTIONS OF
THE TANANA YUKON UPLANDS. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN THE PAST TWO DAYS. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE TANANA RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE THIS WEEK AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THE RIVER WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT SALCHA ON THURSDAY
AND IN FAIRBANKS ON FRIDAY. WATER LEVELS WILL BE HIGH AND AN
INCREASED AMOUNT OF DEBRIS IS EXPECTED ON THE TANANA RIVER.
RESIDENTS ADJACENT TO THE RIVER MAY SEE GROUND WATER IN THEIR
BASEMENTS AND CRAWL SPACES WITH THE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ON THE
TANANA RIVER.