Gale Warning 28, NWS Fairbanks, AK

484 
FZAK52 PAFG 022225
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
225 PM AKDT MON JUL 2 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-031330-
225 PM AKDT MON JUL 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 990 MB LOW 200 NM NORTHWEST OF GAMBELL WILL WEAKEN TO 999 MB
NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND BY TUE EVENING. ON WED THE LOW WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND BE NEAR NOME BY TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ200-031330-
NORTON SOUND-
225 PM AKDT MON JUL 2 2012

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN...FOG.
.TUE...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN...FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-031330-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
225 PM AKDT MON JUL 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN...FOG.
.TUE...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-031330-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
225 PM AKDT MON JUL 2 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 5 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-031330-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
225 PM AKDT MON JUL 2 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN...FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.WED...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

RL/RF JUL 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
114 PM AKDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER AIR...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WITH NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE ALASKA INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD AND
DEEP UPPER LOW NEAR 71N/161E WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
GULF OF ANADYR BY TUESDAY MORNING AND TO THE DALL POINT/NUNIVAK
ISLAND AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR WILL BEGIN FALLING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM YESTERDAYS 00Z GFS RUN AND TODAYS
EARLY MORNING 12Z ECMWF RUN AGREE WELL ON THE FORECAST POSITIONS
OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE SYSTEM WILL
BE DRAGGED ALONG BY THE UPPER LOW.

SURFACE...
A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH LYING EAST-WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN 216-221-227...GOES VISIBLE
IMAGING IS ALREADY SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THESE
ZONES.

EXTENSIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE NOW BEING DETECTED IN ZONES 220-224. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS IN ZONE 222. A FEW GAGES
IN ZONES 220 AND 224 HAVE REPORTED 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND AN INCH.

RAIN WILL BE LIKELY OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TONIGHT...AN
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OVER THE WEST COAST AND FAR
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVE SOUTHEAST.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BLEND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS IS
PREFERRED. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA. OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND...LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH RIDGING NORTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE. HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL. THE BASIC UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ISSUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND
ALASKA RANGE THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL GAGES HAVE REPORTED ABOUT
AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

RF JUL 12