Brisk Wind Advisory 58, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1149 AM AKST SAT FEB 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
965 MB LOW CROSSING THE AK PEN WILL CURVE NWD AND WWD...FILLING
TO AROUND 978 MB NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY SUN PM. THE NEXT SFC
LOW IN THE SERIES WILL BE IN ITS WEAKENING STAGES AS IT MOVES INTO
BRISTOL BAY LATE SUN NIGHT...WKNG FURTHER TO AROUND 990 MB OVER
NORTON SOUND BY MON PM. THESE DECAYING SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR.

ALOFT...A PROGRESSIVE S TO SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
OVER NRN AK...WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL TRANSIT NWD ACROSS THE NRN AK MAINLAND
SUN...WITH ANOTHER CROSSING NRN AK MON. A THIRD SHORT WAVE
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NWD ACROSS NRN AK MON NIGHT. A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR AND BROOKS
RANGE WITH THESE FEATURES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH.

THIS FLOW PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE OF IN THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS AND OPERATIONAL RUNS INCREASE. THUS THERE IS LITTLE OR NO
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECASTS FOR DAYS 7-8. TEMPERATURES S OF THE
BROOKS RANGE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OFF
THE WEEK...THEN SAG DOWN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ227.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

RF FEB 12