Brisk Wind Advisory 203, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
600 AM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...HIGH PRESSURE WITH 555 DM CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN
BEAUFORT SEA AND RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO EASTERN SIBERIA WILL
MOVE WEST AND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE
546 DM OVER THE WESTERN CHUCKCHI SEA WITH RIDGING SOUTH OVER
SIBERIA. A 505 DM LOW PRESSURE WITH CENTER OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL
MOVE WEST AND BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE 495 DM OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL BERING SEA. ECMWF AND GFS AGREE WITH THIS PROGNOSIS. THIS
WILL ESTABLISH SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA WHICH
WILL CONTINUE...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF BREAKS...THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A MORE WEST TO EAST PATTERN TAKES HOLD AND ENERGETIC LOWS
SWING EAST ALONG THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THE INITIAL
PUSH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO NORTHERN ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER WEAK...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
NOTICEABLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHINOOKS AT MID TO LATE WEEK WILL
LIKELY BE MODERATE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE ZERO OVER
MUCH OF INTERIOR ALASKA.

SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WEAKEN AND
MOVE NORTHWEST TO SIBERIA SUNDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CHUCKCHI SEA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OVER NORTHERN CANADA THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST. LOW PRESSURES WILL COME AND GO OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA THIS WEEK. BY MID WEEK...A PATTERN OF LOWS TRACKING EAST TO
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA WILL DEVELOP.

NORTH SLOPE...A TROUGH IS STRENGTHENING OVER THE ARCTIC COAST
AND MCKENZIE BAY. EAST WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS AT
BARTER ISLAND WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WESTWARD TO PRUDHOE
BAY AND BARROW TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED...SO
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS WILL NOT BE NECESSARY TODAY.
THERE IS COLDER AIR TO THE EAST...WITH KOMAKUK BEACH, YUKON AT 18
BELOW AND A WIND CHILL OF 51 BELOW THIS MORNING. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS COLDER AIR REACHING ALASKA'S EASTERN BEAUFORT
SEA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...SO THE SITUATION SHOULD BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING.

WEST COAST...WINDS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP AGAIN ON MONDAY AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEK. A TROUGH MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY BRING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE WEST COAST BUT
ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE THE ONGOING
DRY PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

INTERIOR...CHINOOKS DURING THE UPCOMING WEAK WILL BREAK THE COLD
WEATHER PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL GO ABOVE ZERO OVER THE SOUTHERN
HILLS BY TUESDAY...THEN POSSIBLY OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
INTERIOR BY THURSDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ223.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

DA DEC 12