Brisk Wind Advisory 202, NWS Fairbanks, AK

973 
FZAK51 PAFG 231718 AAA
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
818 AM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

UPDATED ZONES 240 AND 245

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-240030-
818 AM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST
THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

PKZ225-240030-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
818 AM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...NE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-240030-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
818 AM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-240030-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
818 AM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-240030-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
818 AM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-240030-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
818 AM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

DEC 12

496 
FZAK51 PAFG 232333
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
233 PM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-241215-
233 PM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA
TO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA OF RUSSIA WILL MOVE NORTH MON. A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO
LIE FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO PRUDHOE BAY ON MON PM. A LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE YUKON DELTA AS A 994 MB LOW BY 3AM
TUE.

$$

PKZ225-241215-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
233 PM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...NE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-241215-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
233 PM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-241215-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
233 PM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-241215-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
233 PM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.MON...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-241215-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
233 PM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

DEC 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
336 PM AKST SAT DEC 22 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE NOT EXACTLY IN TUNE WITH EACH OTHER EVEN IN
THE SHORT TERM. FEATURES ARE NOT ALIGNED NOR ARE THE SAME FEATURES
EVEN PRESENT ON THE MODEL OUTPUTS. HOWEVER THE ECMWF APPEARS TO
HAVE A MORE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN ACCURACY. SO WILL GO WITH THE
ECMWF FOR NOW.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT IS BEING UNDERCUT BY THE UPPER LOW MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ALASKA GULF OF ALASKA. COLDEST AIR
ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE THROUGH SUN
NIGHT BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR EARLY MON AND THEREFORE DEVELOPS ITS OWN WARM AIR FROM
THE DOWN SLOPE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF NORTHERN
ALASKA IN SOME FORM OR FASHION FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AFTER MONDAY.

THE KATABATIC WINDS WILL VARY IN INTENSITY OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN THE MAJOR FEATURE. ALL WIND CHILL ISSUES WILL
LIKELY BECOME A NON FACTOR BY MON. IN THE MEANTIME IT APPEARS THAT
THERE MAY BE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC AND
PARTS OF THE UPLANDS IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY.

ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD ON SUN AND THEN IMPACT THE NORTHWEST COAST ON MON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.

PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE A MAJOR FACTOR UNTIL TUE FOR THE WEST
COAST AND ONLY MINOR AT THAT. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER THE
BROOKS RANGE AREA DUE TO UPSLOPE BY THU AS IT NOW STANDS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-
AKZ226.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CF/CC DEC 12