Brisk Wind Advisory 159, NWS Fairbanks, AK

600 
FZAK52 PAFG 091145
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
245 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-100015-
245 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 992 MB LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 300 MILES
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY SAT AFTERNOON WEAKENING TO
994 MB. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL
SIBERIA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN SIBERIA COAST AND THE CHUKCHI SEA.

$$

PKZ200-100015-
NORTON SOUND-
245 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WINDS 30 KT. SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN.
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 5 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 40 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-100015-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
245 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING
TO 8 FT. FREEZING RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT...EXCEPT 30 KT NEAR THE BERING
STRAIT AND NW OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING RAIN. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WINDS 15 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT NEAR THE BERING STRAIT 
AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-100015-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
245 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-100015-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
245 AM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

RF/DA NOV 12

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
624 AM AKST THU NOV 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED YESTERDAY FOR SNOW AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN IN ZONES 210-211-212-213-214-215-216-227 ARE CONTINUED WITH
NO CHANGES IN VALID TIME. THE 00Z MODELS INDICATED TEMPERATURES
ALOFT IN THESE AREAS RISING TO AS HIGH AS -3C TO +3C...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROGGED IN ZONES 214-215-227. AS
INDICATED IN YESTERDAYS AREA DISCUSSION...THIS WILL LIKELY BE A
SIGNIFICANT STORM BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVY SNOW
OR HEAVY FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING. LATEST
MODELS DEEPENING THIS LOW TO 982-983 MB AS IT CROSSES THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN THIS EVENING...THE LOW CENTER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CURVE
EASTWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AS THE LOW
CENTER FILLS. THE 06Z GFS RUN IS INDICATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
OVER THESE AREAS A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE 00Z RUN...FREEZING OR
ABOVE FREEZING LAYER ALOFT NOW PROGGED AS FAR NORTH AS NOME-
UNALAKLEET-KALTAG.

EXTENDED FORECAST PORTIONS OF THE GFS/ECMWF BUILDING A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST COAST BY MON...MOVING TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR
BY TUE. THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD AND DEEP TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE MAINLAND LATER
IN THE WEEK...WITH WIDESPREAD 850 MB TEMPERATURES -20C OR COLDER.
THIS LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST MAJOR COLD AIR INTRUSION OF THE WINTER...
BUT CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIKELY AND THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW TO -20 MARK AT THE SURFACE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-
AKZ216-AKZ227.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200.
&&

RF NOV 12