Brisk Wind Advisory 132, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
147 PM AKDT TUE JUN 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH SLOPE AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR...LATE THU AND FRI THE HIGH WILL BUILD WEST AND SOUTH
COVERING THE CHUKCHI SEA AND MOST OF THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL
THEN DRIFT NORTHWEST AS A LOW OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC DROPS SOUTH
OF BANKS ISLAND SUN. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WED AND THU AS THE HIGH BUILDS. SEVERAL
TROUGHS MOVING WEST IN THIS FLOW TODAY AND WED...THE SECOND ONE IS
THE STRONGEST WHICH MOVES FROM GULKANA TO EAGLE 4PM WED TO ANVIK
TO AMBLER 4PM THU...AT 4AM FRI IT WILL EXTEND FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND
TO THE BERING STRAIT.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH FROM DAWSON TO TANANA TO 90 MILES SOUTH
OF KOTZEBUE AT 4PM TODAY WILL MOVE TO EAGLE TO FORT YUKON TO
GALENA 4PM WED...WITH EXTENSION NORTHWEST TO SELAWIK AS WELL AS
SOUTH TO A WEAK LOW NEAR MCGRATH. AT 4PM THU THE TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM DAWSON TO FAIRBANKS TO GALENA TO UNALAKLEET. 1035 MB
HIGH 700 MILES NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL DRIFT NORTH AND
STRENGTHEN TO 1040 MB 4AM THU.

MODELS...IN THE SHORT TERM NAM AND GFS AGREE FAIRLY WELL IN
FEATURES AT SURFACE AND ALOFT. IN THE MEDIUM TERM THE ECMWF IS
WANTING TO KEEP THE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH OF BANKS ISLAND AT THE
END OF THE WEEKEND FARTHER EAST THAN THE GFS...THIS IS PROBABLY A
GOOD MOVE AND NOTE THE LATEST HPC 500 MB CHARTS ALSO FAVOR THIS.

NORTH SLOPE...EAST WINDS CONTINUING FOR MOST ALL THE WORK WEEK.
EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP AROUND BARROW WED NIGHT AND THU SOME AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES WEST ACROSS INTERIOR. STRATUS AND FOG
PERSISTING WITH ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

WESTERN ALASKA...THE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT FARTHER WEST
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGHS MOVING OVER
NORTHERN AK. SO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ZONES 216 215 AND
EASTERN 210 212 AND 209 SOUTHERN 217...ISOLATED THUNDER FOR ZONE
208 227 AND NORTHERN 217. ON WEDNESDAY THE AREA OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SIMILAR THOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO COVER ALL OF 210 AND 212. ON THU THE STRONGER TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST SO ZONE 216 215 212 AND 214 ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
INLAND AREAS WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WITH A FAIRLY UNSTABLE SOUNDING
AGAIN FOR FAIRBANKS THIS MORNING...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FOR ZONE 224 222 221 219..WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER OVER REMAINDER OF AREA. ON WED THE INCOMING STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
FOR ZONES 222 223 224 225 AND 226 WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NORTHERN 222 224 AND REMAINDER OF THE AREA. BY THU THE HIGH ALOFT
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME STABILIZING ALOFT SO WILL EXPECT JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE THERMAL TROUGH...MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDER WESTERN
221 AND 219.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ZONE
220...WILL EXTEND INTO WED PM AS WELL. CONTINUED SLOW DRYING FOR
NORTHEAST INTERIOR. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOMEWHAT WEST
TODAY AND WED THEN DECREASING SOME BY THU AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS A
BIT OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JL JUN 12