Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

753 
WWAK63 PAFG 052046
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1246 PM AKDT TUE JUN 5 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
STRONG WIND FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN INTERIOR...

AKZ220-061500-
/X.EXT.PAFG.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120607T0600Z/
YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS-
1246 PM AKDT TUE JUN 5 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR
STRONG WIND...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY.

* 20 FT WINDS...EAST 15 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT.

* TIMING...EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 MPH
  THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10 PM AKDT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
  SUBSIDE LATE THIS EVENING BUT WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY FROM AROUND
  NOON AKDT THROUGH 10 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

275 
WWAK63 PAFG 052056
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1256 PM AKDT TUE JUN 5 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY
FOR STRONG WIND FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN INTERIOR...

AKZ220-061800-
/X.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120607T0600Z/
YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS-
1256 PM AKDT TUE JUN 5 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY
FOR STRONG WIND...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY. 

* 20 FT WINDS...EAST WIND 15 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT.

* TIMING...EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 MPH WITH FREQUENT 
  GUSTS TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10 PM 
  AKDT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS EVENING BUT WILL 
  DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY FROM AROUND NOON AKDT THROUGH 10 PM 
  AKDT WEDNESDAY EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

997 
WWAK63 PAFG 061525
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
725 AM AKDT WED JUN 6 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WIND FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN INTERIOR...

AKZ220-070600-
/X.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120607T0600Z/
YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS-
725 AM AKDT WED JUN 6 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WIND...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING. 

* 20 FT WINDS...NORTHEAST WIND 15 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 35 PERCENT.

* TIMING...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 MPH WITH FREQUENT 
  GUSTS TO 25 MPH AROUND NOON AKDT TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
  10 PM AKDT TONIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

109 
WWAK63 PAFG 070541
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
941 PM AKDT WED JUN 6 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR STRONG WIND FOR A PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR...

AKZ220-070645-
/X.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120607T0600Z/
YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS-
941 PM AKDT WED JUN 6 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR STRONG WIND...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND HUMIDITIES HAVE RISEN ABOVE 30%.
WINDS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH.

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
530 AM AKDT TUE JUN 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COVERS THE NORTHEAST MAINLAND THIS MORNING.
THE GFS AND NAM COMPUTER WEATHER FORECAST MODELS PREDICT THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO EXPAND WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TO
COVER ALL OF THE REALM NORTH OF THE ARCTIC CIRCLE ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT 850 MILLIBARS / ABOUT 5000 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL /
ARE FORECAST TO COME UP FROM ABOUT 8 DEGREES CELSIUS TODAY TO 10
DEGREES CELSIUS ON WEDNESDAY...AND AS MUCH AS 12 DEGREES CELSIUS
ON THURSDAY. SINCE MID SUMMER TEMPERATURES AT 850 MILLIBARS OVER
INTERIOR ALASKA CAN REACH 20 DEGREES CELSIUS...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THIS MORNINGS INTERIOR FORECASTS GO ONLY AS FAR AS
THE LOWER 80S.

ON FRIDAY...THE TEMPERATURES AT THIS LEVEL ARE FORECAST TO REACH
AS FAR AS 16 DEGREES CELSIUS...BUT NO FURTHER FOR THE WEEKEND
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE REALM NORTH
OF THE ARCTIC CIRCLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN...OVER THE WEEKEND
COLDER AND MODERATELY STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND AN INFLUX OF CLOUDS
FROM THE ARCTIC...TO THE EAST HALF OF THE REALM STARTING LATE
SATURDAY. THIS COOLING TREND SHOULD DEVELOP OVER ALL OF NORTHERN
ALASKA BY SUNDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...THE INFLOW OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL WEAKEN.
ALTHOUGH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN TO 4 TO 6 DEGREES
CELSIUS THEN...A RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN ALASKA CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT IS UNLIKELY TO REACH
THE WARMTH EXPECTED HERE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER INTERIOR ALASKA IS STILL UNSTABLE THIS
MORNING. THE BETHEL RADAR SHOWED A REMARKABLE SWATH OF HEAVY
RETURNS ON MONDAY EVENING...COVERING ALL OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
AND A GOOD PORTION OF THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY. THE ALASKA LIGHTNING
DETECTION SYSTEM RECORDED 1429 STRIKES ON MONDAY...THE LARGEST
TOTAL FOR THIS SEASON SO FAR. MOST OF THE STRIKES WERE IN THE
TROUGH OF THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IN THE INTERIOR...EXTENDING FROM
THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...THE MIDDLE TANANA
VALLEY...AND THE UPLANDS BETWEEN THE YUKON AND TANANA RIVERS.

THE NAM20 COMPUTER WEATHER FORECASTING MODEL PROJECTS AN UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE INTERIOR TODAY...AND THE CENTRAL
YUKON VALLEY THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING ITS FORECASTS FROM THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...THIS MODEL PREDICTS THE UNSTABLE AIR TO SHIFT
WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...COVERING THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY...THE
INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE KOYUKUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS.

THE NAM20 MODEL IS A HIGHLY DETAILED MODEL COVERING ALASKA...THE
WESTERN MAINLAND OF CANADA...THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BERING SEA AND
THE ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADIAN ARCTIC. ITS PREDICTIONS OF SURFACE
WIND FLOW AND ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY ARE USUALLY QUITE GOOD.

THIS MORNINGS POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER
OVER THE INTERIOR SIMILAR TO MONDAYS...SO THE WEATHER TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO MONDAYS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A
WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE MOST ACTIVE THUNDER AND LIGHTNING AREA. THIS
MORNINGS WEATHER BALLOON RUN AT FAIRBANKS SHOWS A DECREASE IN
MOISTURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...FROM A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
0.87 INCH YESTERDAY TO 0.69 INCH THIS MORNING. THIS IS TO BE
EXPECTED NEAR THE AXIS OF EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.

LOW CLOUDS COVER ALL OF THE ARCTIC COAST EAST OF POINT LAY THIS
MORNING. THE 15 TO 25 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY A
WELL MIXED LAYER OF AIR WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED FEET FROM THE
SURFACE. THE CLOUD BASES UP THERE NOW ARE FROM 300 TO 600 FEET.
THESE NUMBERS REPRESENT THE DEPTH OF THE WELL MIXED LAYER. THERE
IS NOT THE EXTENSIVE THICK FOG WHICH COULD BE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT POINT LAY AND WAINWRIGHT THE WINDS
ARE DEFINITELY OFFSHORE...AND THE SKY IS CLEAR. THE FAA WEB
CAMERAS SHOW THIS BEAUTIFULLY. THIS PARAGRAPH CONTAINS A LARGE
PART OF WHAT WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FIND ABOUT ARCTIC ALASKAN COAST
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE PAST 38 YEARS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS
REMAINS IN EFFECT. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO 30 PERCENT...ROUGHLY 5 PERCENT LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN NORTHERN ALASKA FOR THE
PAST 2 DAYS. RIVER LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE SLOWLY FALLING
FROM MODERATE STAGES. IF THERE IS ANY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS IT WILL BE LOCALIZED TO SMALL AREAS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

TF JUN 12