Brisk Wind Advisory 117, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1209 PM AKDT THU MAY 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...A 508 DM LOW AT 500 MB LOCATED NEAR SHISHMAREF AT
18Z THU CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE LOCATED NEAR ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND BY 12Z FRIDAY AND NEAR ST PAUL ISLAND 12Z SATURDAY.
ON THE SURFACE A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DEVELOP WITH WEAK CHINOOK FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES OF THE LAST COUPLE DAYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

1008 MB LOW OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
TO THE WEST. BRISKS WIND ALONG THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE COAST WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE WEST. SNOW IN
THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE COAST. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE TONIGHT.

CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE WEST COAST AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING
SEA THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW. LOCAL WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 MPH
ALONG FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.
BRISK WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN MARINE ZONE 210 FROM ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND WEST TOMORROW.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM IN MOVING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BERING
SEA INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE LOW THEN MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THE NEXT FEW DAYS
RETURNING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 25 TO 35
PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUKON RIVER AT
CIRCLE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF 4 PM WEDNESDAY THE BREAKUP
FRONT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 20 MILES UPRIVER FROM CIRCLE. IF THE
BREAKUP FRONT MOVES JUST PAST CIRCLE WATER COULD POTENTIALLY START
RISING RAPIDLY. RESIDENTS OF CIRCLE SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE EVENT THAT FLOODING MATERIALIZES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

&&

CCC MAY 12