Brisk Wind Advisory 116, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
246 PM AKDT WED MAY 2 2012

CORRECTED CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW 140 MILES NE OF KOTZEBUE WILL MOVE
TO THE BERING STRAIT 4PM THU AND TO JUST SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOFS
4AM SAT. ASSOCIATED TROUGH FROM LOW TO FAIRBANKS ROTATING NORTH TO
EXTEND FROM BERING STRAIT TO BARTER ISLAND 4PM THU...STATIONARY
THEREAFTER AS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH OVER BERING SEA. VORTICITY
MAXIMUM NORTH OF DAWSON CANADA MOVING TO BARTER ISLAND 4AM THU
THEN DISSIPATING. AS DEEP LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST LIGHT
SOUTH FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER INTERIOR AND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH SAT.

SURFACE...1032 MB HIGH OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC WILL EXPAND WEST
ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA LATER THU THROUGH FRI WHILE DRIFTING SOUTH
OVER FAR EAST RUSSIA. LOW DEVELOPING NEAR INUVIK CANADA BY 10PM
WED AND DRIFTING NORTH AND DEEPENING TO 1004 MB THROUGH 4PM THU.
1006 MB LOW OVER GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE CENTRAL
ALASKA RANGE 10AM THU AND WEAKEN. STRONG ARCTIC FRONT FROM ERN
BROOKS RANGE TO NEAR NORTHWAY AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO INUVIK CANADA TO
DAWSON TO FAIRBANKS AND TO SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND 4PM THU AND TO
INUVIK TO BETTLES TO GALENA TO ANVIK 4PM FRI. POOL OF COLD AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN AK WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING SOUTHWEST
OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH FRI THUS ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM
ESPECIALLY TO SOUTHEAST OF ARCTIC FRONT.

MODELS...ALOFT MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND. IN MEDIUM RANGE BOTH OPERATIONAL GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR OVER NRN AK AT SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
DAY 5 THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOME SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTH SLOPE...SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL ZONES CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DIMINISHING THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
TO THE BROOKS RANGE AND THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY. EXPECT
2 TO 3 INCHES ACCUMULATION INTO THU. WEST WINDS OVER ERN COASTAL
ZONES WILL INCREASE SOME BUT SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 25 MPH BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATER THU. TEMPS AT LEAST FOR THE BROOKS RANGE AND
EASTERN ZONES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WARM AFTER THU...BUT TAKE
UNTIL SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERN COASTAL ZONES.

WESTERN ALASKA...WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND THE COMPANION DRY SLOT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ARE ALLOWING ZONES 208 209 217 TO
HAVE LITTLE IN CLOUD THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ZONES 213 211 210 AND
216 TO HAVE EXTENSIVE COVER. THIS EVENING THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
OVER ZONES 217 208 AND 209...AS WELL AS DRIFTING SOUTH OVER ZONES
214 AND 215 AS THE LOW SHIFTS SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ZONES AS THE UPPER LOW TREKS SOUTHWEST. AS THE
UPPER LOW TRANSITS SOUTH FROM THE BERING STRAIT NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AT LEAST BRISK WIND CATEGORY FRI OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. ALSO TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY WARM FROM EAST TO WEST
AFTER FRIDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
OVER ERN 218...ERN 220 AND 224...ENDING FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL INCH
ACCUMULATION ERN 218. ELSEWHERE PARTLY CLOUDY AND NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP. THE VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BEGIN WARMING THU AND
BY LATE WEEKEND SHOULD BE BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. SPOTTY SHOWERS
EXPECTED ON FRI AS AIRMASS WARMS AND SOME DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE INCREASES AS ARCTIC BOUNDARY RETREATS TO THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON LATE FRI/SAT WILL DEVELOP SOME SOUTH
WINDS IN THE AK RANGE BUT EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO ISSUES TODAY AND THU. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND AND S WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED IN THE AK
RANGE. MIN RHS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S PERCENT THEN OVER SRN
INTERIOR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE CURRENTLY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JL MAY 12