Wind Chill Advisory 25, NWS Anchorage, AK

676 
WWAK42 PAFC 231313
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
413 AM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

AKZ155-240100-
/X.CON.PAFC.WC.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-121224T0100Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
413 AM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...INCLUDING BETHEL.

* WIND...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH. LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...35 TO 45 BELOW ZERO...COLDEST INLAND.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WINDS
  THEN LOOK TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

881 
WWAK42 PAFC 240111
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
411 PM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

AKZ155-240215-
/X.EXP.PAFC.WC.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-121224T0100Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
411 PM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY TODAY HELPING TO END THE LOWEST
WIND CHILLS. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SAT DEC 22 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT TODAY. EACH MODEL IS HANDLING
THE DETAILS A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY. GENERALLY USED A MIXTURE OF MODELS
FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST...THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z EC BEING SLIGHTLY
PREFERRED. IN CONTRAST...FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVER-ALL
PATTERN WITH SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES...BUT NOT ANY MORE
THAN USUAL.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER KODIAK ISLAND. VIRTUALLY
ALL OF SOUTHERN ALASKA IS TRANSITIONING TO CYCLONIC FLOW UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW. A CLOSED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE ARCTIC OCEAN JUST NORTH OF POINT BARROW IS CONTINUING TO DRIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME RIDGING STRETCHES SOUTH FROM THIS HIGH OVER
THE EASTERN BERING SEA INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. A LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST RUSSIA IS GIVING BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE KODIAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BROADEN AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OPEN UP MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE LOW BRINGING IN MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...SOME MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL WORK
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION
(MAINLY SNOW) WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM ABOUT SEWARD
SOUTHWARD...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS WHITTIER. LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT A EAST/WEST ORIENTED FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD. PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OPENS UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW INLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SNOW IN THE ANCHORAGE/MATANUSKA/SUSITNA WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BEGIN TONIGHT OVER THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FROM
THE EAST. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH MONDAY. A BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE NEXT SYSTEM IS OFF TO THE
SOUTH.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING
SEA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT FROM THE EAST AND FROM
THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BY THE KODIAK LOW AND THE RUSSIAN LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST (TUESDAY NIGHT) THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THIS LOW WILL
GRADUALLY NUDGE EASTWARD AND WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
BE THE RULE FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA AS WELL AS MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS
AND BERING SEA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...FOR
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MOST OF THE TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 138 140 160 170 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 126 127 130 140 141 150 160 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG DEC 12