Small Craft Advisory 932, NWS Anchorage, AK

037 
FZAK51 PAFC 240003
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-241500-
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 988 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK WILL MOVE NEAR KING SALMON
MON AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE. A WEATHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHWEST GULF TUE.
$$

PKZ120-241500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG 
THE COAST. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-241500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES 
HEAD. SNOW.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS 
AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-241500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-241500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-241500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS EAST....E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS.  
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE MORNING. FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS EAST...SE WIND 30 KT.
SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
10 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-241500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-241500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-241500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT EXCEPT N 30 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-241500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SUN DEC 23 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SAT DEC 22 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT TODAY. EACH MODEL IS HANDLING
THE DETAILS A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY. GENERALLY USED A MIXTURE OF MODELS
FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST...THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z EC BEING SLIGHTLY
PREFERRED. IN CONTRAST...FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVER-ALL
PATTERN WITH SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES...BUT NOT ANY MORE
THAN USUAL.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER KODIAK ISLAND. VIRTUALLY
ALL OF SOUTHERN ALASKA IS TRANSITIONING TO CYCLONIC FLOW UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW. A CLOSED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE ARCTIC OCEAN JUST NORTH OF POINT BARROW IS CONTINUING TO DRIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME RIDGING STRETCHES SOUTH FROM THIS HIGH OVER
THE EASTERN BERING SEA INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. A LARGE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST RUSSIA IS GIVING BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE KODIAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BROADEN AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OPEN UP MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE LOW BRINGING IN MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...SOME MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL WORK
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION
(MAINLY SNOW) WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM ABOUT SEWARD
SOUTHWARD...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS WHITTIER. LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT A EAST/WEST ORIENTED FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD. PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OPENS UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW INLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SNOW IN THE ANCHORAGE/MATANUSKA/SUSITNA WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BEGIN TONIGHT OVER THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FROM
THE EAST. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH MONDAY. A BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE NEXT SYSTEM IS OFF TO THE
SOUTH.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING
SEA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT FROM THE EAST AND FROM
THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BY THE KODIAK LOW AND THE RUSSIAN LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST (TUESDAY NIGHT) THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THIS LOW WILL
GRADUALLY NUDGE EASTWARD AND WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
BE THE RULE FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA AS WELL AS MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS
AND BERING SEA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...FOR
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MOST OF THE TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 138 140 160 170 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 126 127 130 140 141 150 160 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG DEC 12