Small Craft Advisory 935, NWS Anchorage, AK

782 
FZAK51 PAFC 251245
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-260300-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH
WED MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWEST GULF TONIGHT AND
MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF WED.

$$

PKZ120-260300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT E 25 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...E WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO
20 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-260300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-260300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND DIMINISHING TO 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-260300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-260300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 2 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-260300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 21 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-260300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-260300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FOOT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 15 
KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6
FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-260300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON DEC 24 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A LOW
CENTERED NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE MAJORITY OF THE
STATE. THIS LOW CENTER WILL WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE PATTERN ALOFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER SOUTHERN
MAINLAND ALASKA. THE JET STREAM REMAINS IN THE ZONE FROM 30N TO 40N
AND WILL REMAIN AROUND THAT AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE IS A BIT MORE COMPLEX WITH MULTIPLE LOW
CENTERS ALONG A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. IN ADDITION TO
THIS THERE IS A LOW IN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION THAT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST BUT IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SNOW OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE GULF TUE..WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ITS ENERGY BEING USURPED BY A DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE IMPROVED FROM A DAY AGO BUT THERE ARE
STILL SOME AREAS OF CONCERN. OVERALL THE NAM AND GFS LOOK VERY
REASONABLE WITH THE NAM USED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EASTERN PART F
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS SOLUTION AROUND THE BERING SEA HAS NOT
CHANGED A LOT  FROM YESTERDAY AND THE OTHER MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO
ADJUST THEIR SOLUTIONS TO ONES THAT LOOK SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THE
ECMWF MODEL BEGINS TO DIVERGE FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS AS EARLY AS
TONIGHT AND BY WED MORNING HAS DEVELOPED A RATHER STRONG LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA THAT IS RESOLVED AS AN OPEN WAVE ON OTHER
SOLUTIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FAVORS THE OPEN WAVE SOLUTIONS AND
THEREFORE THE ECMWF WAS NOT USED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...PERHAPS THE MOST INTERESTING WEATHER SITUATION
IN THE AREA IS SETTING UP FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DOWN SLOPE EFFECT AND
KEEP THE SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OUT OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL PAST
MIDNIGHT. BY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL HAVE PASSED OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND
WEAKEN THEREFORE CUTTING OFF THE DOWN SLOPE. BEFORE THE WAVE PASSES
THROUGH THE STRONG WINDS COMING OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM WILL TURN DOWN
THE INLET AND THE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY. HOWEVER AS THIS WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD THERE MAY BE A FEW
HOURS WHERE THE TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE CITY AND BRING SOME SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. IF THIS HAPPENS IT WILL BE FOR ONLY A SHORT TIME BUT WOULD
ALSO JUMP THE TEMPERATURES IN THAT PART OF THE CITY AS WELL.
BY EARLY MORNING THE SITUATION BECOMES CONDUCIVE FOR STEADY SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR TURNAGAIN PASS THROUGH EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY
THROUGH THE EASTERN KENAI MOUNTAINS AND STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AS THE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEAKENS AND FINALLY DISSIPATES
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODEL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER THE MODELS DO AGREE ON AN ACTIVE PATTERN. MULTIPLE
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING PERIODS OF
STRONGER WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH THEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125 131.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 129 130 150 155 170 172 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 12