Small Craft Advisory 934, NWS Anchorage, AK

676 
FZAK52 PAFC 251215
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-260300-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 983 MB LOW 120 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
AND DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 210 NM
SOUTH OF SHEMYA WED AFTERNOON AT 971 MB THEN MOVE TO 120 NM SOUTH OF
SHEMYA WED NIGHT AT 965 MB. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 240 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR TONIGHT AT 960 MB AND THEN MOVE TO 180 NM
SOUTH OF KODIAK WED NIGHT AT 969 MB.

$$

PKZ150-260300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-260300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT IN THE MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 20 KT. 
SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING...INCREASING TO 35 KT. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
15 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-260300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-260300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-260300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-260300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-260300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-260300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE
MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT BERING SIDE...15 FT
PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-260300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-260300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...BERING SIDE...SW WIND 20 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...SW WIND 25 KT
BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-260300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 61N. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 61N. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-260300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON DEC 24 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A LOW
CENTERED NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND WHICH ENCOMPASSES THE MAJORITY OF THE
STATE. THIS LOW CENTER WILL WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE PATTERN ALOFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER SOUTHERN
MAINLAND ALASKA. THE JET STREAM REMAINS IN THE ZONE FROM 30N TO 40N
AND WILL REMAIN AROUND THAT AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE IS A BIT MORE COMPLEX WITH MULTIPLE LOW
CENTERS ALONG A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. IN ADDITION TO
THIS THERE IS A LOW IN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION THAT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST BUT IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SNOW OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE GULF TUE..WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ITS ENERGY BEING USURPED BY A DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE IMPROVED FROM A DAY AGO BUT THERE ARE
STILL SOME AREAS OF CONCERN. OVERALL THE NAM AND GFS LOOK VERY
REASONABLE WITH THE NAM USED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EASTERN PART F
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS SOLUTION AROUND THE BERING SEA HAS NOT
CHANGED A LOT  FROM YESTERDAY AND THE OTHER MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO
ADJUST THEIR SOLUTIONS TO ONES THAT LOOK SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THE
ECMWF MODEL BEGINS TO DIVERGE FROM OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS AS EARLY AS
TONIGHT AND BY WED MORNING HAS DEVELOPED A RATHER STRONG LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA THAT IS RESOLVED AS AN OPEN WAVE ON OTHER
SOLUTIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FAVORS THE OPEN WAVE SOLUTIONS AND
THEREFORE THE ECMWF WAS NOT USED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...PERHAPS THE MOST INTERESTING WEATHER SITUATION
IN THE AREA IS SETTING UP FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DOWN SLOPE EFFECT AND
KEEP THE SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OUT OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL PAST
MIDNIGHT. BY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL HAVE PASSED OVERHEAD
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND
WEAKEN THEREFORE CUTTING OFF THE DOWN SLOPE. BEFORE THE WAVE PASSES
THROUGH THE STRONG WINDS COMING OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM WILL TURN DOWN
THE INLET AND THE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY. HOWEVER AS THIS WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD THERE MAY BE A FEW
HOURS WHERE THE TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE CITY AND BRING SOME SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. IF THIS HAPPENS IT WILL BE FOR ONLY A SHORT TIME BUT WOULD
ALSO JUMP THE TEMPERATURES IN THAT PART OF THE CITY AS WELL.
BY EARLY MORNING THE SITUATION BECOMES CONDUCIVE FOR STEADY SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR TURNAGAIN PASS THROUGH EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY
THROUGH THE EASTERN KENAI MOUNTAINS AND STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF AS THE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST WEAKENS AND FINALLY DISSIPATES
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODEL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW INTO THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER THE MODELS DO AGREE ON AN ACTIVE PATTERN. MULTIPLE
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING PERIODS OF
STRONGER WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH THEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125 131.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 129 130 150 155 170 172 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 12