Small Craft Advisory 923, NWS Anchorage, AK

647 
FZAK52 PAFC 210152 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA...CORRECTED
400 PM AKST THU DEC 20 2012

CORRECTED TYPO ZONE 185

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-211500-
400 PM AKST THU DEC 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND CENTRAL BERING SEA
WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA FRI AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE
FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA ON SAT.
$$

PKZ150-211500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST THU DEC 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-211500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST THU DEC 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE
WIND 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...SE WIND 15 KT.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SE 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-211500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST THU DEC 20 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E OF 160W...E WIND 15 KT. W OF 160W...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N IN
THE EVENING.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-211500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST THU DEC 20 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E OF PORT
MOLLER. 
.FRI...E OF PORT MOLLER...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. W OF PORT MOLLER...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY E OF PORT MOLLER IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...E OF PORT MOLLER...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 
10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF PORT MOLLER...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 15
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN..NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-211500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST THU DEC 20 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT S AND E OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-211500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST THU DEC 20 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-211500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST THU DEC 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-211500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST THU DEC 20 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT
BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 32 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-211500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST THU DEC 20 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT EXCEPT S 25 KT BECOMING W 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT
EAST OF KISKA. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 31 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-211500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST THU DEC 20 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-211500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST THU DEC 20 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N AND E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.FRI...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY N OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY N AND E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-211500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST THU DEC 20 2012

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

446 
FZAK52 PAFC 211228
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 21 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-220300-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 21 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS FRI AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE FRI NIGHT. A 1002 MB LOW WILL
DEVELOP 90 NM EAST OF CHIGNIK SAT EVENING AND WILL DEEPEN TO 998 MB
SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-220300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 21 2012

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-220300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-220300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 21 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-220300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY IN 
THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NW 30 KT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-220300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 21 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N WIND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-220300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 21 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-220300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 
40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-220300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...NW WIND 30 KT
BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 31 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-220300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 21 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-220300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 21 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-220300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 21 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-220300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 21 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST THU DEC 20 2012

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. GENERALLY THE FORECASTS
INCORPORATE THE NAM FOR ITS BETTER HANDLING OF TERRAIN RELATED/SMALL
SCALE FEATURES. AFTER 60 HOURS THERE STARTS TO BE SOME DIVERGENCE ON
HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALASKA...AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW(S) OVER THE GULF. THE GFS
TENDS TO BE SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LOW WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE A
LITTLE FASTER. AS THE LOW MOVES WEST AND BEGINS TO SPLIT...THE GFS
IS PUSHING MORE OF THE ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT
WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF PUTTING MORE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH.
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST...BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF MODEL RUNS AHEAD FOR THIS TO SORT
ITSELF OUT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A HUGE BLOCKING RIDGE BETWEEN 150 AND 160 DEGREES WEST
LONGITUDE. THIS RIDGE IS NEARLY FULL-LATITUDE...IT STRETCHES FROM
THE TROPICS TO 80 DEGREES NORTH. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA THAT IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES NORTH FROM THIS LOW INTO THE
ARCTIC OCEAN NEAR MACKENZIE BAY. THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING SEA. NORTHERLY FLOW IS OVER MOST
OF SOUTHERN ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE OVER-ALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY GET SQUEEZED FRIDAY AND THEN WILL "PINCH
OFF" WITH A CLOSED HIGH MOVING INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN NEAR POINT
BARROW SATURDAY MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
ALASKA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN SPLIT ON SUNDAY
WITH SOME OF THE ENERGY MOVING NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN ALASKA...AND
SOME MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE MODELS AGREE
THERE WILL BE A SPLIT...BUT DISAGREE ON HOW EXACTLY THIS WILL
PROGRESS.

SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...STRONG WINDS OVER FAVORED AREAS WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
RELAXES. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO THE AREA.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WILL REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD INTO SUNDAY
AS THE RIDGE STUBBORNLY HOLDS BACK ANY INTRUSION OF MOISTURE FROM
THE WEST. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
INTO THE AREA.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY (MOSTLY IN THE FORM
OF RAIN). PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SLACK OFF FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE BERING SEA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A BIT UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
BUT WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE...THERE IS SOME CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 111 131 135.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 127 128 130 170 172 175 176 179 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 125 126 127 128 129 130 132 138
             140 141 160.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG DEC 12