Small Craft Advisory 903, NWS Anchorage, AK

785 
FZAK51 PAFC 131253
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU DEC 13 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-140300-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 989 MB LOW WILL FORM 30 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK THU AFTERNOON 
AND THEN STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO 90 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND 
AT 975 MB FRI MORNING. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 30 NM EAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND SAT MORNING AT THE SAME STRENGTH.
$$

PKZ120-140300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST THU DEC 13 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-140300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 13 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS 
S OF CAINES HEAD. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-140300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST THU DEC 13 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-140300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST THU DEC 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-140300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST THU DEC 13 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NW 20 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
SEAS 11 FT EXCEPT 4 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.  
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-140300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-140300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST THU DEC 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-140300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 13 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-140300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 13 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 12 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IN THE UPPER-LVLS...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
OCEAN HAS FULLY RETREATED SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF AK INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. IN IT'S WAKE A BROAD BUT SOMEWHAT FLAT TROUGH ENCOMPASSES
THE REMAINDER OF THE AOR FROM SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BACK THROUGH THE
BERING SEA. MOIST SOUTHWEST MID-LVL FLOW IS VEERING TO A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL ZONE IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR
ALASKA WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN BERING SEA. THERE ARE
VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS. ONE LOW OVER
THE FAR UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY IS DRIFTING EAST AND FILLING AS IT
SQUEEZES OUT SOME LIGHT SNOWS OVER THE SW MAINLAND. ANOTHER LOW IS
CENTERED AROUND 250 MILES WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND DRIFTING
EAST...THOUGH SOME GALES REMAIN OVER MANY MARINE AREAS. ALSO OF NOTE
IS A DEVELOPING LOW 350 MILES SOUTH OF ATKA MOVING NORTHEAST.

FURTHER EAST...A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMED IN THE NORTHWEST GULF EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS MOVING EAST OF CAPE
SUCKLING THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE HEAVIEST AREAS OF SNOW HAVE
LARGELY ENDED AS THE SUPPORTING ENERGY AND LIFT ARE MOVING
AWAY...ALTHOUGH SOME RESIDUAL WARM AIR ALOFT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
STILL SUPPORTS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTHCENTRAL AK. COLD
ADVECTION IS FILLING IN BEHIND THE GULF TRIPLE POINT HOWEVER...AND
COUPLED WITH MODEST PRESSURE RISES ARE SUPPORTING STRENGTHENING
WESTERLY GALES ACROSS GULF OFF-SHORE MARINE AREAS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL AGREEMENT IS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT THE COMPLEX PATTERN IS HANDLED
SATISFACTORILY ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. THE LOW WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS
MOVES TO AROUND 100 MILES EAST OF SAINT PAUL THU AFTERNOON...THEN
TRACKS TO BRISTOL BAY'S WATERS LATE THU NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
ABSORBED BY THE SYSTEM THAT IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF ATKA. THAT PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT...
BRUSH KODIAK ISLAND THU EVENING...AND REACH PEAK INTENSITY IN THE 970
MB RANGE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF MIDDLETON ISLAND FRI AFTERNOON.
SYSTEM SPEED RATHER FAST INITIALLY AS IT RIDES ALONG ZONAL 120 KT
UPPER-JET...BUT SLOWS TO A CRAWL AS IT WORKS INTO THE GULF WHILE THE
UPPER-FLOW AMPLIFIES. THE ECMWF AND NAM SURFACE POSITIONS ARE CLOSEST
IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT SLIPS FROM THE PACIFIC TO
THE GULF...WITH THE GFS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS LAGGING CONSIDERABLY
FURTHER SOUTH. THE 18Z GFS TRENDED THE TRACK NORTH A BIT TOWARDS THE
ECMWF/NAM. HAVE INCORPORATED A BLEND OF NAM AND ECMWF FOR THE
SOUTHCENTRAL TO GULF FORECAST PACKAGES. MODELS DO HAVE SOME AGREEMENT
BY THE WEEKEND SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND COLDER AIR FROM THE
ARCTIC BLEEDING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND.

FURTHER WEST IN THE BERING...A LOW FORMS 400 MILES NORTH OF ATTU ON
THU AND TRACKS INTO EASTERN SIBERIA ON FRI. A FRONT IS DRAGGED
THROUGH THE BERING...BUT DISAGREE ON IT'S ORIENTATION AND INTENSITY.
THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE FRONT AND EVEN DEVELOPS A LOW ALONG IT
THAT TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN BERING FRI MORNING TO NEAR THE PRIBILOFS
EARLY SAT MORNING. HEAVE LEANED A BIT MORE ON THE GFS...WHICH SHOWS A
WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE SYSTEM IN THE ESTABLISHED UPPER ZONAL
FLOW...BUT ALSO ACKNOWLEDGE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POSITIONS/DEVELOPMENT
BECAUSE OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED FLOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS SHIFTED
EAST...THOUGH CONTINUED WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO STILL SUPPORT
SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH A MORE WEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING...THE FOCUS OF RESIDUAL LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT TO
THE MOUNTAINS. THE APPROACH OF THE GULF SYSTEM LATE THU INTO FRI
BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO MAINLAND SOUTHCENTRAL. CURRENT TRACK
KEEPS LION'S SHARE OF QPF OVER THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA...THOUGH
A SHIFT FURTHER NORTH TO WEST COULD ALLOW MORE PRECIPITATION TO SPILL
OVER THE CHUGACH/KENAI RANGES. FOR KODIAK ISLAND...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REVERT BACK AS COLD-ADVECTION FILTERS BEHIND
THE LOW TRACKING EAST OF CAPE SUCKLING. THIS SHOULD ENABLE THU
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH SOME CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS SOME WARMER AIR SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW.

SOUTHWEST...
LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS LARGELY TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW AS THE
VERTICAL PROFILE COOLS WITH LOWERING THICKNESSES...BUT COVERAGE IS
BECOMING MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE IN RATHER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
QUICK SHOT OF RAIN FOR THE AKPEN WITH THE DEVELOPING PACIFIC SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY ON THU...WHICH MAY BRUSH SOUTHERN REACHES OF
BRISTOL BAY WITH SOME SNOW. SOME WEAK UPPER-RIDGING BUILDS IN FRI AND
COUPLED WITH OFF-SHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW EVEN LESS COVERAGE OF PRECIP
AND DECREASED CLOUDINESS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
PROXIMITY OF UPPER-JET TO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL SUPPORT WAVES OF
VARYING INTENSITY ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND YIELD PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. PRECIP TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK WESTERLY GALES
INTO FRI.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
FORECAST CHALLENGES EARLY WEEKEND SURROUND THE LINGERING LOW IN THE
GULF. IN IT'S WAKE...MODELS SUGGEST A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS AND SOME
OFF-SHORE FLOW FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. ACROSS THE
BERING/CHAIN...STRONG JET LOOKS TO KEEP THINGS ACTIVE WITH VARIOUS
STORMS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...101 111 141 (ENDING THIS EVENING)
MARINE...GALE...120 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 172 175 176 179
                180 185 351 352 411 412 413 414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...127 160 185 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MALOY