Gale Warning 811, NWS Anchorage, AK

112 
FZAK62 PAFC 131233
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 13 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-140300-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 989 MB LOW NEAR 58N 174W WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM FRI
MORNING. A 996 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR 55N 175E THIS MORNING AND MOVE
TO 56N 178E AT THE SAME STRENGTH FRI MORNING AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED
BY A LOW IN THE BERING STRAIGHT FRI EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-140300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST THU DEC 13 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT EXCEPT W 20 KT S OF 55N. SEAS 11 TO 14
FT. 
.TONIGHT...S OF 56N...W WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. N OF 56N...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S OF 57N...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. N OF 57N...E WIND
15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-140300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU DEC 13 2012

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...S OF 57N...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF 57N...E
WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-140300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU DEC 13 2012

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S OF 55N...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. N OF
55N...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-140300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST THU DEC 13 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W TO N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N OF 57N...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. S OF 57N...W WIND 15 TO
25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

266 
FZAK62 PAFC 140000
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU DEC 13 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-141500-
400 PM AKST THU DEC 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 988 MB LOW NEAR 58N 170W WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR 59N 162W AT SAME
STRENGTH FRI MORNING. A 993 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR 60N 172E LATE
TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO EASTERN THE EASTERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BY FRI
AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ411-141500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST THU DEC 13 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT W WIND 30 KT S OF 55N. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE EVENING. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-141500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU DEC 13 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E OF 
174W. 
.FRI...W OF 176W...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEA 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. E OF 176W...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.FRI NIGHT...W OF 176W...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. E OF 176W...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-141500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU DEC 13 2012

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT W 30 KT S OF 55N. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.FRI...N OF 55N...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S OF 55N...W WIND
30 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-141500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST THU DEC 13 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. EXCEPT W 25 KT S OF 57N. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
N OF 56N. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

203 
FZAK62 PAFC 141159
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 14 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-150300-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 991 MB LOW NEAR 58N 165W WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR 58N 158W AT SAME
STRENGTH LATE THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
BERING WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL BERING TONIGHT THEN THE
EASTERN BERING BY FRI AFTERNOON AND REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH SUN
MORNING. A 994 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR 60N 174E LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE
TOWARD THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA BY FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-150300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 14 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-150300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 14 2012

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 
11 FT.  PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-150300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 14 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT N OF 55N. SEAS 13
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-150300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 14 2012

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
56N.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
56N. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 12 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IN THE UPPER-LVLS...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
OCEAN HAS FULLY RETREATED SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF AK INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. IN IT'S WAKE A BROAD BUT SOMEWHAT FLAT TROUGH ENCOMPASSES
THE REMAINDER OF THE AOR FROM SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BACK THROUGH THE
BERING SEA. MOIST SOUTHWEST MID-LVL FLOW IS VEERING TO A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL ZONE IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR
ALASKA WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN BERING SEA. THERE ARE
VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS. ONE LOW OVER
THE FAR UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY IS DRIFTING EAST AND FILLING AS IT
SQUEEZES OUT SOME LIGHT SNOWS OVER THE SW MAINLAND. ANOTHER LOW IS
CENTERED AROUND 250 MILES WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND DRIFTING
EAST...THOUGH SOME GALES REMAIN OVER MANY MARINE AREAS. ALSO OF NOTE
IS A DEVELOPING LOW 350 MILES SOUTH OF ATKA MOVING NORTHEAST.

FURTHER EAST...A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMED IN THE NORTHWEST GULF EARLY
THIS MORNING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS MOVING EAST OF CAPE
SUCKLING THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE HEAVIEST AREAS OF SNOW HAVE
LARGELY ENDED AS THE SUPPORTING ENERGY AND LIFT ARE MOVING
AWAY...ALTHOUGH SOME RESIDUAL WARM AIR ALOFT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
STILL SUPPORTS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTHCENTRAL AK. COLD
ADVECTION IS FILLING IN BEHIND THE GULF TRIPLE POINT HOWEVER...AND
COUPLED WITH MODEST PRESSURE RISES ARE SUPPORTING STRENGTHENING
WESTERLY GALES ACROSS GULF OFF-SHORE MARINE AREAS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL AGREEMENT IS BELOW AVERAGE...BUT THE COMPLEX PATTERN IS HANDLED
SATISFACTORILY ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. THE LOW WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS
MOVES TO AROUND 100 MILES EAST OF SAINT PAUL THU AFTERNOON...THEN
TRACKS TO BRISTOL BAY'S WATERS LATE THU NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
ABSORBED BY THE SYSTEM THAT IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF ATKA. THAT PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT...
BRUSH KODIAK ISLAND THU EVENING...AND REACH PEAK INTENSITY IN THE 970
MB RANGE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF MIDDLETON ISLAND FRI AFTERNOON.
SYSTEM SPEED RATHER FAST INITIALLY AS IT RIDES ALONG ZONAL 120 KT
UPPER-JET...BUT SLOWS TO A CRAWL AS IT WORKS INTO THE GULF WHILE THE
UPPER-FLOW AMPLIFIES. THE ECMWF AND NAM SURFACE POSITIONS ARE CLOSEST
IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT SLIPS FROM THE PACIFIC TO
THE GULF...WITH THE GFS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS LAGGING CONSIDERABLY
FURTHER SOUTH. THE 18Z GFS TRENDED THE TRACK NORTH A BIT TOWARDS THE
ECMWF/NAM. HAVE INCORPORATED A BLEND OF NAM AND ECMWF FOR THE
SOUTHCENTRAL TO GULF FORECAST PACKAGES. MODELS DO HAVE SOME AGREEMENT
BY THE WEEKEND SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND COLDER AIR FROM THE
ARCTIC BLEEDING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND.

FURTHER WEST IN THE BERING...A LOW FORMS 400 MILES NORTH OF ATTU ON
THU AND TRACKS INTO EASTERN SIBERIA ON FRI. A FRONT IS DRAGGED
THROUGH THE BERING...BUT DISAGREE ON IT'S ORIENTATION AND INTENSITY.
THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE FRONT AND EVEN DEVELOPS A LOW ALONG IT
THAT TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN BERING FRI MORNING TO NEAR THE PRIBILOFS
EARLY SAT MORNING. HEAVE LEANED A BIT MORE ON THE GFS...WHICH SHOWS A
WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE SYSTEM IN THE ESTABLISHED UPPER ZONAL
FLOW...BUT ALSO ACKNOWLEDGE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POSITIONS/DEVELOPMENT
BECAUSE OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED FLOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS SHIFTED
EAST...THOUGH CONTINUED WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO STILL SUPPORT
SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH A MORE WEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING...THE FOCUS OF RESIDUAL LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT TO
THE MOUNTAINS. THE APPROACH OF THE GULF SYSTEM LATE THU INTO FRI
BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO MAINLAND SOUTHCENTRAL. CURRENT TRACK
KEEPS LION'S SHARE OF QPF OVER THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA...THOUGH
A SHIFT FURTHER NORTH TO WEST COULD ALLOW MORE PRECIPITATION TO SPILL
OVER THE CHUGACH/KENAI RANGES. FOR KODIAK ISLAND...ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REVERT BACK AS COLD-ADVECTION FILTERS BEHIND
THE LOW TRACKING EAST OF CAPE SUCKLING. THIS SHOULD ENABLE THU
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW...THOUGH SOME CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS SOME WARMER AIR SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW.

SOUTHWEST...
LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS LARGELY TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW AS THE
VERTICAL PROFILE COOLS WITH LOWERING THICKNESSES...BUT COVERAGE IS
BECOMING MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE IN RATHER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. A
QUICK SHOT OF RAIN FOR THE AKPEN WITH THE DEVELOPING PACIFIC SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY ON THU...WHICH MAY BRUSH SOUTHERN REACHES OF
BRISTOL BAY WITH SOME SNOW. SOME WEAK UPPER-RIDGING BUILDS IN FRI AND
COUPLED WITH OFF-SHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW EVEN LESS COVERAGE OF PRECIP
AND DECREASED CLOUDINESS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
PROXIMITY OF UPPER-JET TO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL SUPPORT WAVES OF
VARYING INTENSITY ROTATING THROUGH THE FLOW AND YIELD PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. PRECIP TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK WESTERLY GALES
INTO FRI.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
FORECAST CHALLENGES EARLY WEEKEND SURROUND THE LINGERING LOW IN THE
GULF. IN IT'S WAKE...MODELS SUGGEST A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS AND SOME
OFF-SHORE FLOW FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. ACROSS THE
BERING/CHAIN...STRONG JET LOOKS TO KEEP THINGS ACTIVE WITH VARIOUS
STORMS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...101 111 141 (ENDING THIS EVENING)
MARINE...GALE...120 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 172 175 176 179
                180 185 351 352 411 412 413 414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...127 160 185 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MALOY