Small Craft Advisory 899, NWS Anchorage, AK

965 
FZAK51 PAFC 111251
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-120300-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1003 MB LOW 75 NM WEST OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE
BY TUE NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF WED MORNING AND
TRACK TO THE EASTERN GULF WED NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-120300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-120300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-120300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-120300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-120300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-120300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-120300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-120300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF KALGIN
ISLAND...SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-120300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PROGRESSIVE WITH
A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION. A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING WITH
A SECONDARY SMALLER SHORT-WAVE STILL OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THERE
IS LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION. AS THESE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN THERE IS ENOUGH
LIFT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH AND
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ARE TRACKING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN BERING/ALASKA PENINSULA OUT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE GULF LOW ARE LEADING
TO STRONG GAP WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. OUT WEST A STRONG
LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS PUSHING A STORM
FORCE FRONT ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS TODAY AND ADVECTING MUCH WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF
SYSTEMS OUT WEST...PARTICULARLY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING. ECMWF NOW SEEMS TO BE THE ODD SOLUTION
OUT WITH A MUCH WEAKER TRIPLE POINT LOW. GFS/NAM/UKMET/GEMGLB ALL
AGREE ON A STRONGER LOW BUT DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION. THIS IN TURN
IMPACTS THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TO
MAINLAND ALASKA. THERE WILL BE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES AS WARM AIR
ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT...SO THE POSITION WILL BE KEY TO FIGURING
THAT OUT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND COMBINE WITH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY
ALONG WEST FACING MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL END BY MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM ESPECIALLY NEAR
COOK INLET. MEANWHILE...THE EAST WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN THE LOW MOVING TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND RIDGE BUILDING
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GAP WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING TO
GAPS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT.

THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES QUICKLY FROM THE BERING SEA.  EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WARMER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
PRIMARILY RAIN ALONG THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY
MAKE IT NORTHWARD TO CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
AS FAR NORTH AS ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT VALLEY. THE ONE THING WORKING
TOWARD A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER IS THAT
SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION FAVORS MODERATE
TO HEAVY PRECIP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE KENAI/CHUGACH/TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS. FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DO REMAIN ALL SNOW THERE COULD BE
SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOTALS. THE DETAILS OF PRECIP TYPE WILL HAVE
TO BE WORKED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT.
WEAK LIFT FROM THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
FIRMLY OVERHEAD BY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY HEAD EAST ON
TUESDAY AS THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTS ARRIVES FROM THE BERING. THE
FIRST FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT ARRIVES SO EXPECT PRECIP TO
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INITIALLY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW BUT MAY WARM ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN ALONG
THE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH HEAVIER PRECIP WITH THE SECOND
FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO WARM EXPECT FREEZING RAIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN FROM THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TO BRISTOL BAY. PLAN
TO ISSUE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR A FAIRLY LONG DURATION TO
HANDLE BOTH FRONTS...ALTHOUGH ANY SINGLE LOCATION WON'T SEE A VERY
LONG PERIOD OF FREEZING SPRAY. COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE BACK
IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A BERING LOW TRACKS TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA WHICH WILL CHANGE PRECIP BACK TO ALL SNOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A SERIES OF STRONG LOWS WILL MOVE INTO OR
DEVELOP OVER THE BERING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN. THE LOWS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE
LOW WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL TRACK TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING BACK IN BEHIND IT. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS
ADDITIONAL LOWS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT
AT THIS POINT IN TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE
CURRENT SYSTEMS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT A BIT ALLOWING SYSTEMS TO MOVE OUT OF SIBERIA INSTEAD OF
FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. THEREFORE THE AIR MASS OVER THE ALASKA
REGION WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY SNOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...130 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 172
                        175 176 179 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON DEC 10 2012

AKZ101-111-111400-

...A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE
ANCHORAGE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE BERING
SEA AND THEN INTO THE ALASKA MAINLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
ONE SUCH POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN A LOT OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR WEDNESDAY.
BLOWING SNOW AND PERHAPS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN
ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS WINDS INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT PRECLUDES ISSUING AN
ADVISORY...WATCH...OR WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY
LIES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD
POSSIBLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH WOULD
DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...OR EVEN RAIN FOR PARTS OF
ANCHORAGE.

THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE ANCHORAGE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ARE URGED TO STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF ANY
ADVISORIES...WATCHES...AND/OR WARNINGS WITH THIS EVENT.

CASSELL